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Good afternoon, everyone — JD here, reporting from sunny Tucson where I’m staying with my mom for a few days.
If you hear any barking in the background of today’s video, it’s just the neighbor’s dog auditioning for a spot in the S&P 500.
Let’s get to it.
The Clue That Was Right in Front of Us
As this week kicked off, there was one huge clue that markets might run higher — and it wasn’t some obscure chart pattern or flashy piece of news. It was the economic calendar.
Or more specifically, how empty the economic calendar was.
No major data releases. No surprises. No ammo for headline-chasing algos to latch onto.
And when the market doesn’t have anything urgent to react to, that silence itself becomes a signal.
Why “No News” Can Be Bullish
Here’s the thing: A big chunk of short-term market movement is driven by algorithms reacting to economic data.
A strong job report? Selloff. Weak GDP? Pop higher. Whether it’s good or bad, that news is what triggers billions in fast-moving money.
But when the news flow is dull, those algos sit on their hands.
And in that vacuum, passive inflows take over.
I’m talking about money automatically flowing into index funds — from 401(k)s, pension plans, ETFs, and the like. That kind of buying isn’t based on fear or excitement. It’s just steady, unemotional demand.
And in the absence of scary economic news or shocking headlines to spook investors, those passive flows quietly push markets up.
Tariff Talk Tried to Get in the Way
Now, I’ll admit, Monday and Tuesday didn’t start as strong as I expected. That’s mostly thanks to Trump’s latest chest-thumping over tariffs — something I think he couldn’t be more wrong about, for the record.
But the market largely shrugged it off. Call it a “Taco Tuesday” mood: relaxed, unbothered, and hungry for upside.
And today (Wednesday) turned out to be a beauty. I expect Thursday and Friday to follow suit.
What to Watch (or Not Watch) Next
The only potentially meaningful data point left this week is Thursday’s initial jobless claims. But those have been coming in right on expectations for months now — so I’m not expecting any fireworks.
The bottom line? This was a week where the lack of news was the bullish setup. The clues were right there in the calendar, if you knew where to look.
Talk soon,
JD
The Rational Trader
