Hi everybody. JD here with your Rational Trader market analysis.
Today’s Market Was a Ghost Town
This morning, I started my day as I always do — triangulating key data points using the Four Pillars of Rational Trading. I do that in pursuit of finding a daily arbitrage opportunity I can act on in my Money Fortress. (If you’re wondering, “Money Fortress” is my tactical trading portfolio — built to find short-term edge and outperformance using the same Rational Trading framework I share with you here.)
But today, May 14? Crickets.
I checked the economic calendar (like this one on Investing.com) — one of the first places I always look. And it reminded me why I’m doing today’s video: some trading days are just… empty.
No meaningful data. No earnings. Nothing but a few Fed speeches — and let’s be honest, with Jay Powell in neutral mode, those won’t move the needle right now.
The Calendar Shapes the Game
I use the economic calendar not just to see what’s coming — but to gauge whether the market will have a reason to move at all.
No major catalysts = no strong setups = keep it light.
And that’s exactly what happened today. I tried to fade volatility at the open — meaning I bet the VIX would fall, and I took a position accordingly.
What Happened With the Trade
That trade drifted lower throughout the day — and we took a hit on it.
But I don’t judge a trade by whether it wins or loses. Just like poker, I’m playing the odds — not the outcome.
Why I’m Still Confident
Over many trades, the math plays out. Some days we lose. Most days we don’t.
But today was never going to be a big win day — because the setup just wasn’t there.
If I had seen a higher-quality opportunity, that’s when I’d size up. That’s when I’d use leverage.
But with nothing on the calendar? As I said above, you keep your exposure tight. And that saved us today.
Final Word
One of the mandates in my Money Fortress is outperformance — but that doesn’t mean winning every trade.
It means trading smart, sizing correctly, and knowing to keep it light when the data just isn’t there.
Talk soon,
JD
The Rational Trader
P.S.
