Why July Could Be the Month That Breaks the Traditional Summer Slump

by Graham Lindman | Jun 11, 2025

Let’s talk seasonals because this time of year, I always get the same question…

“Is summer really that bad for the markets?”

And the honest answer? It depends which month you’re looking at.

June tends to be flat. August and September? Historically the weakest stretch of the year.

But July? That’s the one bright spot. Over the last 60 years, July has been the only summer month with a consistently bullish edge for the S&P 500.

Now here’s where it gets interesting…

If we can finish June strong — which could be possible after today’s strong Consumer Price Index inflation data — then history says we’ve got a window for a clean push to new highs in July.

I’m already positioning for that possibility. Doesn’t mean I’m blindly bullish. It means I’m being selective.

So what am I doing right now?

Watching for setups in tech and communication services — the two strongest seasonal sectors this time of year
Avoiding financials and materials — both showing seasonal weakness and failing technical setups
Keeping dry powder for early July, when institutional rebalancing tends to kick in

And remember: The first month of a new quarter has historically captured the bulk of gains.

That’s not opinion. That’s six-plus decades of data.

So while the headlines might stay noisy… I’m looking at the calendar — and the playbook says July could be one of our best shots at upside this summer.

And we’ll keep covering the strongest ones at 10 a.m. ET weekdays with Nate Tucci on “Opening Playbook.”

AES Corp. (AES) In Bullish Mode

AES has been picking up steam lately, and a big part of that story is its strong momentum in the renewables space. The company’s been busy — adding over 600 megawatts of solar power to its portfolio, locking in more long-term deals, and building out a massive 11.7 gigawatts backlog.

That kind of execution tends to catch attention.

Analysts have started to take notice too, with names like Bank of America and Citigroup raising their price targets and calling for 25–30% upside over the next year.

Combine that with a solid move higher — AES just popped more than 3% in a single session — and you’ve got a stock that’s starting to show some serious bullish character.

And now we see green on our Newton Indicator. AES could be ready to make a run up to previous highs or even higher.

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) Looking Bearish

KMI has been stuck in a bearish pattern for most of 2025, and the chart hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. We’re seeing a steady trend of lower highs, plus some clear breakdowns through support that used to hold up just fine.

While the broader Energy sector (XLE) has seen pockets of strength, KMI hasn’t kept pace — and that kind of relative weakness tends to stand out. Slower growth expectations and ongoing concerns around long-term demand for natural gas infrastructure aren’t helping the story either.

This isn’t a total breakdown, but it’s definitely a name that’s gone cold.

Confirming this, our Newton Indicator just turned red after fading into yellow for a few bars. This momentum down could mean more bearishness ahead for KMI.