First, don’t forget to join me at 10 a.m. ET each Thursday for “Opening Playbook.”
I’m already cooking up at least three trade ideas for everyone in attendance, so don’t be late…
As for today, U.S. stocks are having a rough morning after we got some inflation news that was hotter than expected.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices jumped 0.5% in January, pushing the annual inflation rate up to 3%, which is the highest it’s been since June 2024. And the core CPI, which takes out more volatile food and energy costs, also climbed 0.4% from last month, and 3.3% from last year.
Not great.
This inflation data has totally shifted what everyone thinks the Federal Reserve is gonna do. Investors are only expecting one rate cut in 2025 when we were looking at two.
The thought is that higher interest rates tend to slow down business and can hurt how much companies earn, which definitely played a part in Wednesday’s market dip.
But that’s not all.
Trump is expected to announce new tariffs soon, which could throw another wrench into the inflation situation and mess with global trade.
Meanwhile, he’s again calling for rate cuts in the face of pushing for more tariffs…
Tyson Foods (TSN) Moving Higher
No matter the inflation and tariff situation’s impact on the markets, Tyson Foods (TSN) has been on fire in 2025, and it’s easy to see why.
The company crushed earnings, posting $13.62 billion in sales — up 2.3% year over year — while operating income skyrocketed 151% to $580 million. The real star?
Chicken. It had its best first-quarter performance in eight years, pulling in $4.07 billion.
With that kind of momentum, Tyson bumped up its 2025 outlook, expecting up to 1% sales growth and up to $2.3 billion in adjusted operating income. Investors are loving it, and with a solid dividend, TSN is proving to be a real winner this year.
At the same time, our Newton Indicator is in bullish mode. After moving up but staying yellow, it just printed a big green bar and looks like it might be ready to make a run.
Carnival Corporation (CCL) Sinking
On the flip side, Carnival (CCL) has been sputtering lately…
CCL had a blowout 2024, raking in tons in revenue and finally turning a profit again. But here in 2025, that momentum has hit a wall.
The post-pandemic travel boom gave cruise stocks a massive tailwind, but analysts are now questioning whether that surge has staying power. Demand is still there, but not at the same explosive levels, and that’s making it tough for Carnival to keep up its pace.
Additionally, the Newton Indicator has just turned red and has rolled over after making a recent high. Newton is indicating more bearishness for CCL.
With energy and food costs already making prices climb, the new tariffs could add to that and keep inflation higher for longer.
Let’s see what happens as the day unfolds. We’ll see if the market stays negative or if we get a positive catalyst.
If you want to learn more about how Newton works, Sarah is giving a live demo at 4 p.m. ET today — and she’s giving out more long and short signals for free!
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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