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I want to follow up on a trade I shared on Opening Playbook last week — one that illustrates exactly how I approach buying opportunities, especially in names that have proven themselves over the long haul.
Recently, I’ve been looking at Progressive (PGR), and it’s one of those setups where the data and the technicals line up beautifully. This isn’t a hot tip or a momentum chase. It’s a methodical entry into a stock that’s averaged about 15% annually over the last 30 years — compared to the S&P 500 (SPY) at 10%.
I rode PGR from around $70 to the $200-300 levels, and now we’ve got another buying opportunity in front of us.
The Gap Fill Pattern That Caught My Attention
Back in October, PGR gapped down about 6.5% overnight. That kind of violent reaction to news often creates a technical pattern worth tracking — the gap fill.
Here’s how I approached it: I set an alert at $230, which was the high of the gap down day. And the key here was the close — not just a touch. I wanted to see the stock close above that level to confirm buyers reclaiming control.
That happened on Thursday, when PGR closed at $230.44. With that level reclaimed, the probability increased that the stock would push toward the gap target at $236.30. Sure enough, by Friday’s close, PGR had already moved up to $234.85, putting the gap fill squarely in sight.
Why I’m Holding Longer Than This Swing
Even though the short-term setup is already playing out, I bought a bunch of stock at current levels.
I believe the recent pullback was overdone. PGR is a really good stock with a long, proven track record. When quality names get hit like this, it’s not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to pay attention.
For traders who prefer options, Jan. 16 expiration calls made sense here at the time — either one strike in the money (ITM) or a couple dollars out of the money could still be worth a look, especially if we see a little dip.
The early move up to $234.85 confirms the momentum shift I was looking for and shows buyers stepping back in. Now it’s about letting the structure play out, both for the gap fill and for the longer-term position.
This is the kind of setup I look for — historical performance, technical clarity and a defined plan. You don’t need to swing at every pitch. But when the data and the chart line up like this, it’s worth your attention.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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P.S. Join Us at 11 AM ET for the Upside-Down Options Summit
I just rounded up a call with Jack regarding today’s Upside-Down Options Summit at 11 a.m. ET!
He’s putting final touches on his notes, and I doubt I’ve seen him this excited in quite a while.
I won’t say much here, but I’d really recommend you NOT miss today’s LIVE Summit.
Everyone who joins us at 11 a.m. ET will learn:
✅ How Jack discovered what’s arguably the market’s most consistent daily phenomenon
✅ The unconventional setup he’s used to exploit this phenomenon for daily cash payouts
✅ Why they have gone win after win even during some of the market’s most volatile stretches
✅ How you can get in on your first trade as soon as today
✅ And a whole lot more.
No guarantees when it comes to the market, of course…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. The performances displayed here were identified in both real time and with 20/20 hindsight. From 5/2022 through 12/2025 the back tested win rate was 86.4% on 631 total setups with a 14.2% average daily return of winners and losers and a 28.4% average win. From 11/12/25 to 12/14/25 the real time trading win rate was 93.3% with an average return on options trades of 15% over a one day hold time with a 24% average win.
