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Ever have one of those moments where a personal detail lines up perfectly with market data? That happened to me recently when I was reviewing seasonal patterns.
My mom’s birthday is March 16, and every year she reminds me that historically, her birthday marks the low in the S&P 500 (SPY). I always thought it was a fun coincidence — until I pulled up the data and realized she’s actually onto something…
Which makes sense because she’s a brilliant trader in her own right.
With Monday being March 16, we may be seeing the bottom, especially with futures hitting the 200-day moving average — a major support level that typically holds.
I still think there’s a chance we retest that level, maybe even landing right on that classic March 16 low. I won’t be surprised if we retest it.
And maybe we do get that March 16 bottom this year. But what matters is that typically after all that early year choppiness comes a nice, multi-month period in April and May.
Here’s what matters more than the exact date: what comes after.
The Post-February Pattern That Repeats
Typically after the early year chop comes a multi-month period in April and May. This isn’t wishful thinking — it’s pattern recognition backed by multiple cycles. So what we’re seeing now looks very familiar.
I’ve been mapping the current AI era against the dot-com boom, and the similarities are striking. October through February in both periods showed a lot of chop — sound familiar?
And looking back at how markets behaved during the dot-com run, it’s very typical to see this kind of setup.
On top of that, the midterm cycle shows March and April going into May historically turn around to the tune of about 2%. That’s not a guess — that’s what the data shows.
Multiple Cycles Converging at Once
What really gets my attention is when multiple signals line up. Right now, we’ve got three major cycles pointing in the same direction.
First, the seasonal pattern I just mentioned. Second, the midterm cycle bounce, which historically gives March through May a solid push of about 2%. And third, the Fed Chair Cycle flips bullish with the months going into the replacement, which should be in May. Though, one senator is currently blocking Trump’s nominee until he drops the investigation in current Chair Jerome Powell, which could push things back if that’s not resolved.
The two months leading up to May typically get very bullish for SPY, and the two months following as well.
That’s a lot of tailwinds stacking up at once.
So here’s my call: I believe the bottom is basically in. I believe the lows won’t go much lower this time around than 6,600 on SPX. And I’m looking for 4-5% above all-time highs as we move through spring.
We might be a tad early saying this but when you’ve got seasonal patterns, midterm cycles and Fed cycles all converging you pay attention.
The chop we’ve been living through since October? That’s typical. What comes next is what I’m positioning for.
Mark your calendar. Whether it’s March 16 exactly or a few days off, the historical pattern says we’re at or near the lows — and the months ahead look a whole lot better.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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