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We’re in the middle of a packed earnings week, and three of the biggest names in the market are all reporting today after the close — Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
This isn’t your typical earnings setup. These stocks will move markets — no question about it. And while earnings can feel like a coin flip sometimes, I’ve been analyzing the technical setups on these names and I’m leaning bullish on all three.
Let me walk you through why — especially on META and MSFT, where I see what I call a max pain opportunity developing.
The Max Pain Setup on Meta
Here’s the thing about META — this stock almost doubled from April through August of last year. It had an incredible run. Then came the concerns about spending.
They were pouring money into AI initiatives without delivering the kind of results investors wanted to see, and the stock was hit hard the last time they reported earnings. It’s been below its 200-day moving average ever since.
But that’s exactly what creates the max pain scenario. When a stock has already taken that much punishment, expectations sink so low that even a modestly positive update can spark an outsized reaction.
My personal take is that I’m leaning bullish on all three of these names, but I’m especially leaning bullish on META — not because I love it the way I used to, and yes I’m still a bit fearful of the stock, but it’s clearly sitting in a classic max pain pocket.
I’m not calling it a guaranteed win because there’s no such thing in trading, but the risk-reward skew here is getting more attractive. A sliver of good news is all it takes when a name has been beaten down this far.
Microsoft Follows a Similar Pattern
MSFT is in a similar spot. It was a frontrunner in the AI arms race for some time, and the stock reflected that strength with a powerful run through August. Then it stalled out. Without a fresh catalyst, momentum faded and the stock eventually slipped under its 200-day moving average.
The setup isn’t quite as stretched as META, but the psychology’s the same — investors are waiting for any hint of a bullish catalyst to step back in. Given MSFT’s history of executing well in emerging tech cycles, the bar for a rebound isn’t terribly high.
And then there’s TSLA. That one’s more of a coin flip but I like the direction they’re heading with robotics and full self-driving. The next few years should be interesting.
Here’s my bottom line: I’d lean about 65% bullish on these earnings. If the news disappoints, we’ll probably test or break the 100-day moving average, but given where market internals sit, the seasonality and the max pain dynamics in names like META and MSFT, the upside case has the edge.
These are high-risk high-reward setups. They’re not my usual technical plays. But sometimes the best opportunities show up when a stock is beaten down and all it needs is the slightest positive catalyst to ignite the next move higher.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 10/05/23-12/3/25 the average return per trade winners and losers was 22.38% with an average winner of 91.51% and a 61.8% win rate over a 4-day hold time.
