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You ever notice how one voice can turn a morning on its head?
That’s what happened when Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller came out saying he supports not raising rates in September. The market jumped the second he said it — and I mean the second.
Everybody had been expecting a September rate increase. That was the street consensus, the positioning and the whole setup.
Then Waller reversed course and said we don’t need to do that, and suddenly you’ve got a different tape entirely.
I’ll be honest — I thought the old policy was to tell Fed officials to stop talking. But here’s Waller making headlines at 8:30 a.m. ET and moving markets in real time.
That’s the problem anymore: One official can make a comment and instantly change the trading environment.
It’s frustrating when you’re trading the data and fundamentals, only to have someone with a microphone rewrite the setup mid-session.
How I Spotted the Move
I was watching the clock hit 8:30 a.m. ET and figured I’d check jobless claims. The number came in pretty much in line with expectations — nothing that should move the needle much.
But when I looked over at the S&P 500 (SPY) and saw it shooting up, I knew something else was going on. That kind of move doesn’t come from an in-line data print.
I checked CNBC and saw Waller speaking right at that moment — there was the catalyst.
That’s how quickly these announcements hit. You may not hear the comment first, but the price action tells you something has changed.
On mornings like this, you have to stay flexible because the headline changes the trade whether you like it or not.
What I’m Watching Next
The real question is whether this rally has enough legs to keep the market up or if it’s just a headline pop that fades by lunch.
One thing stood out: The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) was struggling even as SPY rallied. That tells me participation wasn’t uniform and there was likely some rotation beneath the surface.
A rising SPY doesn’t automatically mean every corner of the market is healthy.
I’m not chasing this move. I want to see if it holds, if breadth improves and if we get follow-through or another round of whipsaw.
Waller gave the market a gift this morning, but gifts don’t always last.
Stay sharp and don’t let a Fed official’s sound bite talk you out of your plan.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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