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The headlines are moving fast, but the market’s reaction is even stranger. From a major maritime blockade being seemingly ignored to targeted security concerns for AI’s biggest name, we are navigating a landscape of massive disconnects [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
U.S. President Donald Trump sent out a tweet pumping Palantir Technologies (PLTR).
You’d think that would send the stock soaring. Presidential endorsement, political tailwinds, the whole playbook.
Except the stock got smacked instead. The Trump pump didn’t pump — it flattened and rolled over.
I’ll admit, when I first heard the chatter, I assumed PLTR had to be up. I saw a comment from my Profit Panel guest host, Ezra and thought Palantir must be ripping. But when I finally pulled it up — not even 20 minutes later — it was getting hit hard. Total expectation versus reality moment.
The Divergence That Told the Story
Before that drop even hit, something was already off.
I was looking at Alex Reid’s two services: the Alphaflow Scanner and the Free Ride Scanner. The Alphaflow showed $6 billion in puts on PLTR, while the Free Ride was stacked with calls.
All upside bets from retail, all downside positioning from institutions.
I just sat there thinking — this doesn’t line up.
And that’s the key. The story retail was telling itself didn’t match where the real money was positioning. Institutions were leaning heavily into downside protection, and that level of conviction doesn’t show up without intent.
The divergence wasn’t subtle. It was a clear warning.
Headlines Don’t Move Markets — Money Does
It’s easy to believe a loud headline or a high-profile endorsement can override everything else. But markets don’t run on noise. They run on positioning, pressure, and capital flows.
A presidential tweet might create attention, but it doesn’t override billions in institutional positioning. Retail chased the narrative, while institutions traded the structure underneath it.
This isn’t about Palantir Technologies being a bad company. It’s about recognizing when the story and the flow are pointing in opposite directions. And when that happens, price usually follows the flow.
When you see that kind of split — retail leaning one way and institutions leaning the other — the edge is almost always on the side with capital, discipline, and positioning power.
That’s how you stay on the right side of the trade.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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P.S. A Massive Shift Is On The Cards In The Market… Are You Prepared?
I recently went live to reveal the No. 1 play traders need to know to capitalize on a massive market shift.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 21 trades, with 15 winners and six still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05%, and the average hold time has been 16 days.
