🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Alex Reid🚨
We’ll cover whether today’s big sell-off is a signal to short tech or a pullback to add into, my commodity analysis of FCX, USO, GLD, and SLV, how to trade the flows around the upcoming SpaceX IPO and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Coming off Monday’s record close of $7,412.84 on the S&P 500 (SPY), the market is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do: It’s taking a breather.
Before you mistake a tactical pause for a structural pivot, you have to look at the primary trend. The tape is telling a specific story right now, and it’s one that requires a little professional patience.
The market moves in cycles, and understanding those cycles matters more than trying to predict every short-term move.
Over time, the stock market spends far more years going up than it does going down. That perspective alone changes how you approach timing, risk and patience as an investor or trader.
Right now, the SPY is making new all-time highs.
That tells you everything you need to know about the primary trend.
When the market is in an uptrend, the focus should stay on the upside, not on worrying about the next bear market before it actually shows up.
Bull Markets Last Longer Than Bear Markets
One thing people forget is how short most down markets really are.
Bear markets tend to last about 18 months at best. Then they turn back around and take off again.
Bull markets, on the other hand, can last for years.
That imbalance alone is why I spend my time looking for stocks going higher instead of trying to guess when everything is going to fall apart.
If we get into a bear market, then you deal with it.
You worry about it when it’s actually happening, not when the market is pushing to new highs. Until then, the trend deserves respect.
Fighting it usually doesn’t end well.
Why Pullbacks Are a Healthy Part of the Cycle
Even in strong markets, prices can’t run forever without stopping.
It’s hard for a market to sprint 400 meters and then immediately run another 400. It has to take a break.
It needs to catch its breath, get some water, maybe eat a peanut butter sandwich, then go again.
That’s what pullbacks are.
They’re not a sign of weakness by themselves. They’re a pause…
They let the market reset before the next move higher. Strong stocks do the same thing.
They make a run, take a break, then turn right back around and take off again.
That’s why timing matters.
Chasing straight-up moves leaves you vulnerable. Waiting for that pullback puts the odds more in your favor.
The market pulls back, digests gains and then, if the trend is still intact, it resumes the move.
Understanding this rhythm keeps you from panicking during normal corrections and keeps you focused on what actually matters — staying aligned with the primary trend instead of fighting it.
👉 Click here to join Profit Panel at 2:30 p.m. ET on weekdays!
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. The ‘Friday Payday’ Logic Revealed
I recently went live to unveil a completely different kind of trading challenge.
The goal?
Targeting a $600 Friday payout (on a $5K stake ) from the market…
Using a setup that has nothing to do with market direction, breaking news, or volatility swings.
Instead of predicting the next move in stocks, tariffs, or geopolitical headlines.
You’re playing a recurring weekly pattern tied to one specific ticker.
When it appears, the opportunity window opens on Tuesday to position you for what could be a payday by Friday.
I call it the Friday Payday Challenge.
During the session, I explained:
- The unique ticker we trade
- The logic behind the weekly pattern &
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No guarantees in trading, of course.
But if you missed the live reveal and want to catch up before the next setup begins forming…
Access the Full Breakdown Here
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. From 8/6/24 to 5/1/26, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 88.6%. The average return (winners & losers) was 5.23% over a 3-day hold time.
