Indecisive market? Here’s the strategy for that.
Before we get into it…
Today’s another one of those “shrug” days in the market — and that tells me a lot more than you’d think.
Because if you told me yesterday that crude inventories would post big draws and Disney (DIS) would give upbeat guidance on streaming and park growth…
I’d have guessed stocks would catch a bid.
But that’s not what happened.
The market sold crude anyway.
Despite big draws in both crude and gasoline from the EIA Petroleum Status report, prices dropped back below $70.
Why? Two things:
- OPEC’s supply increase is still looming large in traders’ minds
- Trump says he’s planning a meeting with Putin “in the near future,” and the market seems to like that (which took more air out of crude)
Even good earnings couldn’t rally some names.
Take Disney. They gave forward guidance — something a lot of companies have been hesitant to do — and they were optimistic across the board.
Streaming, parks, you name it.
And yet… the stock still finished lower on the day.
Meanwhile other stocks brushed off bad news…
Apple (AAPL) is a perfect example. Trump just slapped a 50% tariff on India — and Apple’s been ramping up production there.
You would think that’d spook investors.
But AAPL actually rallied — big time — probably because investors are betting that the company’s U.S. manufacturing investments will help offset the impact.
All this reminds me of what I said Monday — that this market still wants to fake people out.
And honestly? That hasn’t changed.
If anything, these last few sessions have only confirmed it.
One day we’re selling off on weak data. The next we’re rallying on strong earnings. Then we’re back down again even when the news looks good on paper.
That’s not a stable market. It’s one struggling to find any reason to pick a direction. That’s exactly why I’m sticking to trading one week at a time.
Short-term spreads. Tight risk. Adjusting day by day.
Because in this environment, it’s not about predicting what the news will be…
It’s about knowing how the market will react to it.
And right now, that reaction feels shaky.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
