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I’m going to be honest with you: I don’t like March.
That probably sounds strange coming from someone who trades every day, but hear me out. There’s a pattern I’ve been watching for years, and when the calendar flips to March, a little red flag goes up in my brain.
It’s not superstition — it’s repetition…
There are a lot of years where markets make their lows right in the middle of March. Not every year, but often enough that when the beginning of the month hits, I start thinking: It’s March, it’s March, watch out.
When Markets Make Their Lows
During the COVID crash, the market made its low in the middle of March. The same thing happened during the 2008 bank crunch.
Those moments stick with you. When you see that kind of rhythm show up across different cycles — across completely different economic backdrops — you pay attention.
So here’s how I’m approaching it. I’m kind of expecting the market to correct back some more over the next two weeks.
If it doesn’t, great — I’m not rooting for a drop. But if it does, no skin off my back. It’s simply a season where I expect volatility, and I adjust my mindset accordingly.
What Happens After the First Day of Spring
Now here’s the flip side. Once you get past the first day of spring, the tone often shifts.
Historically, buying S&P 500 (SPY) after the spring equinox has been a solid strategy because markets tend to find their footing and push higher going into Memorial Day.
It’s not magic, just a pattern that’s repeated often enough to be worth respecting.
That’s why, even if this month gets bumpy, I’m not sweating it. March dips are part of a familiar rhythm. And once we cross into spring, the market often starts leaning upward again.
So keep your position sizes modest, respect your levels and remember: The Ides of March aren’t just for Caesar.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: The profits and performance shown are not typical; we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 11//11/24 through 2/23/25, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 70%. The average weighted rate of return on options trades was 8.53% over a 1-day hold time.
