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Sometimes a trade just clicks.
I picked up Apache (APA) on Friday, and by Monday morning it was up over 200%.
That’s the kind of move you get when geopolitical tensions light a fire under energy names — and you’re positioned ahead of the crowd.
Here’s the thing: I didn’t get greedy. When the position cleared 200%, I took all but one contract off the table.
That’s my rule. Lock in the win, let one runner see what happens. I’m holding this week’s options to see how they perform over the next couple of days, but the heavy lifting is already done.
A big part of why I was comfortable holding that runner was the broader setup.
I was looking for crude oil to go to $75, it went to $75, and I still can’t see where it can even think about going down right now. When the market lines up that cleanly, you let the trade work.
Why Energy Still Has Legs
A lot of folks are asking if oil can keep running. My take is pretty simple: Oil and gas is still going to be in high demand, and I think it will continue to do well for the time being.
The Middle East situation isn’t resolved, supply concerns are still real and the market is pricing that in every single day.
I’m not saying this runs forever. In three or four weeks — or whenever we finally get a headline saying everything’s fixed over there — crude oil is going to dump.
That’s the exit sign I’m watching for. But until that happens, the momentum is clearly up.
Where I’m Looking Next
If you’re hunting for oil exposure beyond APA, a few names stand out.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Oneok (OKE) have been doing really well, and OKE in particular keeps impressing.
APA caught the flashy move, but these other plays have been grinding consistently and offering cleaner setups for anyone looking to build exposure.
I also keep an eye on SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) when I want a broader sector read.
XOP is a name I trade frequently, and it’s holding up just fine in this environment.
The bottom line: Energy is working and the structure is still intact.
Just make sure you’ve got a plan for when the headlines flip — because they will.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: The profits and performance shown are not typical; we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 11//11/24 through 2/23/25, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 70%. The average weighted rate of return on options trades was 8.53% over a 1-day hold time.
