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The Energy (XLE) sector has been handing out profits like candy for the past couple of years.
Even with longer-term rates like the 10- and 30-year drifting lower and weighing on areas like the metals markets, plenty of energy names have still managed to perform.
Most companies in the space have been making solid money — but there’s one name I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole: Devon Energy (DVN).
I avoid DVN like the plague. And I don’t say that lightly…
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Here’s what drives me nuts about DVN: Everybody in the sector makes money, and then DVN comes in and goes, “We didn’t make money.”
It’s a pattern I’ve watched play out over and over.
When your peers are printing cash and you’re consistently missing, that tells me everything I need to know about management execution and operational efficiency.
Why didn’t they make money? That’s the question I keep asking myself.
And the answer doesn’t matter as much as the consistency of the failure.
I’ve seen DVN do nothing but go down.
That long stretch of underperformance doesn’t happen by accident.
While others have managed to ride strong sector winds, DVN somehow finds a way to fall behind.
When the Numbers Don’t Lie
DVN was trading close to $80 at all-time highs, and then pulled back down to the $40s, where it pretty much remained since.
That kind of sustained decline in a sector that’s been strong isn’t bad luck — it’s a red flag.
When you can’t capitalize on favorable conditions that your competitors are using to generate profits, you’ve got deeper problems.
I’m not here to bash management or predict some miraculous turnaround.
I’m just looking at what the stock has done and what the company has delivered compared to peers. And on both fronts, DVN has consistently disappointed.
Trading is about putting your capital where it has the best chance to work.
Sometimes that means recognizing which names to avoid even when the sector looks attractive.
Devon Energy is one of those names for me. Plain and simple.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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