Still taking trades as soon as the market opens? Here’s a better way to approach the market daily.
Short and straight today: I’m staying on the sidelines. This market is jumpy and whipping around into tonight’s government-shutdown deadline, and I don’t see a prize for being early.
When Washington plays chicken, you get headline spikes, air-pockets, and reversals that make good trades look dumb in a hurry. Until there’s a deal (or a clear “no deal”), liquidity comes and goes, spreads widen, and stops get clipped for sport. No thanks.
We’ve also got job numbers stacked up over the next two days. That’s more fuel for knee-jerk moves — news hit the wire, algos fire first, and the rest of us sort through the rubble. Taken together with a shutdown clock, it’s the perfect recipe for a whipsaw tape.
Here’s my simple plan:
- No new hero trades. I’d rather miss the first 1–2% than donate capital to the churn.
- If you must trade, trade small. Half (or less) of normal size, and be willing to scratch fast.
- Keep it short-dated and tactical. In and out. Don’t marry anything into a binary headline.
- Respect the open. If news hits, let the first 30–60 minutes settle before you press buttons.
- Mind your stops and spreads. Volatility makes fills ugly; don’t give the market a wide target.
What to watch:
- Shutdown headlines. A last-minute deal can spark a relief pop… that sometimes fades once folks read the fine print. No deal keeps risk-off pressure on.
- Jobs data rhythm. A “good” number can be bad for cuts, a “bad” number can be bad for growth — the point is, the first move isn’t always the real move.
- Follow-through, not the first tick. I care less about the spike and more about whether buyers or sellers hold control after the dust settles.
If we get clarity — deal inked or the opposite — I’ll read the tape and step back in with defined risk. Until then, patience is a position.
Sit tight. Keep your powder dry. There will be cleaner pitches.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
