Here’s how I’m targeting $500 from just a $2,500 starting stake… right at very opening bell.
Hey folks,
The second week of the month is usually quiet.
This one’s no exception.
We don’t have CPI. We don’t have a Fed meeting. We don’t even have many earnings left before the next batch hits.
And honestly? That’s exactly when the market likes to make its move.
I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating: when the market makes its lows in March or April, a lot of times you get another low in August.
It’s a seasonal pattern I’ve seen play out more often than not — and this kind of sleepy, no-news week is exactly how a lot of those setups begin.
Now I’m not saying we’re about to crash.
But I do think we’re overdue for a little 5% shakeout — and I think this month is one of the better windows for it.
Because when you zoom out… what exactly is this rally being built on?
We’ve got all-time highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, but earnings haven’t been great, the job market is sending mixed signals, and there’s no clear catalyst other than noise and narrative.
Meanwhile, we’re still seeing grain markets get whacked over trade tensions, and the broader economy isn’t lighting the world on fire.
So when I see the tape this extended, with this little news to back it up?
I reach for protection.
Plus, July is often when the cracks start to show — even if the actual low doesn’t come until August.
Remember last year? The S&P 500 hit a high in mid-July and went on a 3 week correction that ended just short of 10% down.
That’s why I like to stay cautious during weeks like this. Could be a pocket put. Could be a light spread. Could even be going to cash.
Whatever your style, the message is the same: when the calendar’s quiet and the indexes are loud… stay on your toes.
It might be nothing. But if a shakeout’s coming, this is exactly the kind of week it tends to start.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
