The second quarter is officially underway — and the market’s already off to a shaky start.
Stocks gapped down to open the week after Friday’s PCE inflation report came in hotter than expected.
That sent expectations for rate cuts tumbling — and combined with Trump’s tariff talk — kicked off the new week with a healthy dose of whiplash.
Today? The market’s trying to bounce.
As of now, the major indexes are green on both the week and the month. But that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.
The markets are still whipping all over the place this morning trying to find traction for the month… We need to be patient and see which way it heads.
We’re still in the aftermath of a hard selloff, and traders are trying to figure out whether the bounce has legs — or if it’s just another trap.
One place we are seeing strength?
Gold has been on fire lately.
Overnight, gold futures surged to a new high at 3177 before pulling back slightly. As I’ve pointed out several times over the past week or two, the yellow metal remains strong above 3150 — so that’s a level I’ll be watching closely.
This breakout in gold isn’t coming out of nowhere.
Just two weeks ago, I flagged strength building as gold crossed 3050… and then 3100 soon after. Now that we’ve cleared 3150, it’s another notch higher — and potentially another signal that inflation fears and rate-cut uncertainty are keeping traders on edge.
Meanwhile, other markets are still trying to find direction:
- Oil pushed through $70 last week after fresh geopolitical headlines out of the Middle East
- And the S&P 500 — after testing a 10% correction from the highs — is now trying to claw its way back up again
So what’s next?
- Watch the 3150 level in gold — that’s your line in the sand for short-term strength
- Keep an eye on whether the market can hold early-week gains
- And stay alert for more volatility as Q2 kicks off
We’re in a new month and a new quarter — and things are already moving fast.
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
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