95% of traders have no idea this exists.
Yet, it will reshape how you look at gold….
You know what I wish?
That utilities actually charged you based on the real price of natural gas.
Natural gas is down 19% just this year. It’s back under $3. Compare that to 2022, when it ran all the way up around $10 — and since then it’s down about 70%.
But I bet your gas bill hasn’t dropped 70%. Or even 19%.
They were quick to raise rates when natural gas spiked, but have they cut them on the way back down? I’d guess not.
This morning’s EIA report showed another big surplus in supply, which is part of why prices are staying so low. But consumers like you and me aren’t seeing much of that relief in our monthly bills.
Now, stepping off the soapbox…
CPI came in a little hotter than expected.
That’s the Consumer Price Index — the inflation measure for the stuff you and I actually buy.
Meanwhile, PPI was lower yesterday. That’s the Producer Price Index — the costs for businesses before goods hit the shelves.
When you put those two together, it paints a funny picture: producers’ costs are falling, but consumer prices are rising. In other words, the middlemen are gigging the consumer. And history says that won’t last long before people start complaining.
What does this mean for the Fed?
Put simply, it says the Fed still has room to cut rates. And odds are they’ll do just that next week.
That’s why the S&P and the Dow are both making all-time highs again. The market’s already looking past today’s sticky CPI number and betting on cuts coming down the road.
So here’s your quick take:
- Nat gas prices are low, but utilities aren’t passing it on.
- CPI is still running hot while PPI cools.
- And the Fed is lining up to cut, which has stocks ripping.
I’ll be back tomorrow with the latest.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
