Markets Pause, All Eyes on Friday’s Numbers

by | Jan 9, 2025

Hey folks,

I’m writing this update early Thursday morning before hitting the road.

If you’ve been following along, you know I’ve been teaching a trading class with Tom Busby in Jacksonville, FL.

With the markets closed today in observance of Jimmy Carter’s passing, it’s a bit of a pause before the week’s big data release on Friday.

Here’s where things stand:

Markets Taking a Breather

Yesterday, the S&P 500 futures (/ES) just hovered around 5955, seemingly stuck in place. The market didn’t make much of a move, likely waiting for the upcoming non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

That doesn’t mean there wasn’t any action on Wednesday.

The ADP private payrolls report came in below expectations, which helped steady the market after the JOLTS data earlier this week sparked a selloff.

It seems like the market is in a holding pattern, waiting for the next big shoe to drop.

Futures Markets Open Today

While the stock market is closed today, some futures markets are still open for trading. Crude oil and gold will trade all day, but bonds will close early at 1:15 PM.

If you’re watching crude or gold, keep an eye on how they move today. These markets often give us clues about investor sentiment ahead of big economic reports like Friday’s non-farm payrolls.

Friday’s Big Question

The non-farm payrolls report is the last major employment data release under the current administration. It’s always a market mover, and after this week’s ADP and JOLTS reports, all eyes are on whether Friday’s numbers will confirm or contradict the story they’ve been telling.

For now, it’s a waiting game. Let’s see if the market can stay above key levels heading into the weekend.

Safe travels if you’re on the road today, and I’ll catch up with y’all soon.

— Geof Smith

P.S. Quick — what’s the most important part of the trading day? If you said 9:30am, you could be needlessly costing yourself money! Click here to see what I mean.

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