Hey folks,
It’s one of those days where everything is moving — and none of it is subtle.
Let’s start with the big one: Treasury yields are spiking.
That means borrowing costs are going up — and not just for the government. Mortgages, credit cards, business loans… everything gets more expensive when yields rise.
The 20- and 30-year Treasuries are both trading above 5% now — and the market doesn’t like that one bit.
Rising yields can spook equity markets because they compete with stocks for investor attention. Why risk the volatility of tech stocks when you can park cash in a 5% government bond?
Now normally, when yields go up, the U.S. dollar strengthens too. Higher rates usually mean higher demand for the dollar.
But not today: The dollar is actually selling off.
That’s unusual — and it’s one of the reasons gold and silver are rallying.
Remember: precious metals are priced in dollars, so when the dollar drops, metals become cheaper for international buyers — which drives demand.
Plus, when bond yields rise and the dollar falls, it’s often a sign that investors are nervous about the underlying fundamentals — like whether the U.S. can keep rolling over its debt without hitting a wall. (remember Moody’s just downgraded U.S. government debt a few days ago)
And then there’s crude oil, which started the day strong but got slammed after a bearish inventory report.
The latest EIA Petroleum Status Report showed a big surplus in crude and gasoline — meaning supply is outpacing demand right now. That knocked crude and gas off their intraday highs fast.
Oh, and one more headline to watch:
The U.S. is keeping tariffs in place on chips coming from China.
Not potato chips — I’m talking computer chips a.k.a. semiconductors. (Although let’s be honest… if we taxed junk food imports, maybe inflation would be transitory.)
Jokes aside, tariffs like these are part of the broader trade chess game between the U.S. and China. And anytime chips get pulled into the mix, it can ripple across tech stocks, manufacturing, and even inflation forecasts.
Bottom line: It’s a complex, messy market today. But if you know what to watch, there’s still plenty of signal buried in the noise.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
P.S.This one asset is hopping! And all signs point to it going higher. But don’t do a thing till you see this!
