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The market moves in cycles, and understanding those cycles matters more than trying to predict every short-term move.
Over time, the stock market spends far more years going up than it does going down. That perspective alone changes how you approach timing, risk and patience as an investor or trader.
Right now, the S&P 500 (SPY) is making new all-time highs.
That tells you everything you need to know about the primary trend.
When the market is in an uptrend, the focus should stay on the upside, not on worrying about the next bear market before it actually shows up.
Bull Markets Last Longer Than Bear Markets
One thing people forget is how short most down markets really are.
Bear markets tend to last about 18 months at best. Then they turn back around and take off again.
Bull markets, on the other hand, can last for years.
That imbalance alone is why I spend my time looking for stocks going higher instead of trying to guess when everything is going to fall apart.
If we get into a bear market, then you deal with it.
You worry about it when it’s actually happening, not when the market is pushing to new highs. Until then, the trend deserves respect.
Fighting it usually doesn’t end well.
Why Pullbacks Are a Healthy Part of the Cycle
Even in strong markets, prices can’t run forever without stopping.
It’s hard for a market to sprint 400 meters and then immediately run another 400. It has to take a break.
It needs to catch its breath, get some water, maybe eat a peanut butter sandwich, then go again.
That’s what pullbacks are.
They’re not a sign of weakness by themselves. They’re a pause…
They let the market reset before the next move higher. Strong stocks do the same thing.
They make a run, take a break, then turn right back around and take off again.
That’s why timing matters.
Chasing straight-up moves leaves you vulnerable. Waiting for that pullback puts the odds more in your favor.
The market pulls back, digests gains and then, if the trend is still intact, it resumes the move.
Understanding this rhythm keeps you from panicking during normal corrections and keeps you focused on what actually matters — staying aligned with the primary trend instead of fighting it.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
PS. Don’t go spilling the beans on these Sleeper Cells…
For more than five decades, a quiet market behavior has been operating in the background of U.S. equities.
These are not earnings reactions or headline-driven moves. They don’t show up on CNBC tickers or retail scanners. In fact, to the average trader, they’re completely invisible.
Internally, I refer to them as “Sleeper Cells.”
When one of these orders activates on any stock, the price often reverses sharply and begins moving higher, sometimes even when the broader market sentiment says to stay away.
For years, large institutional desks have quietly used this behavior to build positions at discounted levels, long before the move becomes obvious to the public.
Until recently, identifying these orders in real time wasn’t possible.
That’s changed.
A new discovery now allows us to see which stocks are currently carrying these Sleeper Cell orders, along with the exact price levels where they’re sitting.
From our research, they’ve moved big names like Dell, Shopify, and Unity.
While I’m still keeping this tightly controlled…
Naturally, there would have been smaller wins and those that did not work out, but…
I wanted to walk you through how these Sleeper Cell orders actually work and why they tend to precede sharp upside moves.
I’ll also share the full list of stocks where these setups are already lining up right now.
I can’t make absolute guarantees when it comes to the market…
But if you can keep this to yourself…
