SL:Iran’s New Threat Could Disrupt More Than Oil
SSL:The Strait of Hormuz is in focus — but there’s another commodity no one’s talking about
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Hey folks,
Let’s not overcomplicate it — the big story today is Iran. Again.
After the U.S. launched a quick, decisive bombing campaign on Iranian nuclear targets this weekend, the headlines are now saying Iran may move to “close” the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most critical oil shipping routes in the world.
Roughly a fifth of all global crude moves through that narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman. If that gets shut down — or even just threatened — the ripple effects can get serious fast.
But there’s a twist: crude oil isn’t reacting… At least not yet.
Crude opened around $78 last night… and as I’m writing this Monday afternoon, it’s trading down near $68.
That’s a big drop. So maybe the market’s calling the bluff. Maybe this is just a rumor and not a real move.
But if it’s not? If something actually happens in that area? That could create a real supply shock, and the oil market would have to respond.
Now here’s the part no one’s talking about yet: Iran also produces a lot of urea — which is a key ingredient in fertilizer.
So if oil shipments get blocked and urea production gets disrupted, we’re looking at a potential double-whammy: energy volatility + higher food input costs.
Sound familiar? It should — we saw this same setup during the pandemic. Fertilizer prices spiked back then too, and it took a toll on global agriculture.
Right now, the market seems content to shrug. But these kinds of things often don’t matter… until they suddenly do.
So yeah — we’ll see how this pans out.
But I’m watching crude, watching fertilizer, and keeping an eye on what actually develops versus what’s just noise.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
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