Every extended rate cut cycle ends the same way.
Here’s the #1 play you can take right now to stay ahead.
Hey folks,
Quick note from Jacksonville — I’m down here through tomorrow teaching with Tom Busby, but I’m still watching the markets.
First, the headline: gold’s pushing new all-time highs — hitting over 4,000 — and it held throughout the day, closing above 4,000. Honestly, it got there faster than I expected. The steady bid hasn’t gone away, and every dip keeps getting bought.
What’s odd is that silver isn’t confirming today. It’s soft, and it’s acting more like Bitcoin than like gold or copper.
Normally, when gold’s ripping and copper’s firm, I expect silver to tag along. Not today. I don’t have a neat explanation for it — sometimes the market doesn’t hand you one. I’m not forcing a story where there isn’t one.
Here’s how I’m handling metals:
- Gold: I’m sticking with the “buy dips, define risk” plan. If we get that strong close through 4,000, I’ll respect it and look for shallow pullbacks to add.
- Silver: It has to prove it. If it can’t hold green when gold is printing highs, I keep the position smaller and make it earn any add-ons with real follow-through.
- Copper: Quiet strength is a positive tell for the “growth and infrastructure” side of the ledger. I’m not chasing it, but I like it as a supporting signal for the gold strength.
The AI Elephant in the Room
Now, AI stocks. They’re still hot, but I’m smelling smoke.
This has shades of August 2024 to me — big runs, a lot of enthusiasm, and then… a fast reset.
I’m not calling a top, I’m just saying the risk/reward has shifted. These names are hungry for more power (literal electricity) and the build-out is underway, but it takes time.
That gap between demand and supply can cool the jets for a bit.
My approach on AI right now:
- No chasing breakouts late in the move. If I don’t have a good entry, I wait.
- Use income trades (covered calls or conservative credit spreads) when the chart stretches. Get paid to wait for better spots.
- Have a line in the sand. If leaders start breaking obvious support on real volume, I step aside and let them reset.
What could change the tone quickly? A clean pause in AI leaders with orderly pullbacks and buyers stepping in at known levels. If we see that, great — I’ll get back to directional trades. If we see sloppy selling and failed bounces, I’ll keep things light and stick to income.
Bottom line for today:
- Gold: strength is real; I’m buying dips with tight risk.
- Silver: not confirming; smaller size until it behaves.
- Copper: steady is good.
- AI: still hot, but due for a breather; rotate to income or wait for cleaner entries.
Tomorrow’s a travel day for me. I’ll be back at my desk Thursday. Until then, keep it simple and don’t let a hot headline talk you into a cold entry.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
