The Fed has quietly set a powerful cycle in motion. Every time they cut rates, gold takes off… But THIS asset does even BETTER!
Kind of funny timing today. Earlier this week I kept hearing chatter about how long it’s been since the S&P saw a 2% correction.
Well, from the recent high down to today’s low, we hit -1.95%.
So the question is — does that count? Did the market get its “wish” for a correction? Close enough to scratch the itch, or are we due for a little more?
That’s what traders are chewing on today.
A Shutdown Looms
Meanwhile, there’s another cloud hanging overhead: a possible U.S. government shutdown.
The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and the idea of Washington grinding to a halt adds to the nervousness.
Trump, on the other hand, may welcome it — it gives him cover to fire more government workers. Like him or not, you’ve got to admit he doesn’t shy away from shaking the tree.
Oil, Sanctions, and a Big Question Mark
And then there’s the oil angle.
Trump has been pressing India to stop buying crude from Russia. That raises a new question: if they can’t buy from Russia, will he let them buy from Iran or Venezuela instead?
That decision matters. Oil markets don’t operate in a vacuum — they’re shaped by geopolitics, trade flows, and which countries are allowed to sell to which buyers.
So there you have it… today’s themes are simple:
- The S&P flirted with a correction, but didn’t quite hit 2%.
- A looming U.S. government shutdown has investors uneasy.
- And Trump’s oil diplomacy could reshuffle global supply routes.
Plenty to chew on as we head into the weekend.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
