Debt Downgrade Drama

by | May 19, 2025

Hey folks,

Good ole Moody’s (the credit rating agency) decided to stir the pot again…

They just downgraded the U.S. debt outlook — and the market’s reacting exactly how you’d expect.

Bonds are selling off.
Yields are spiking.
And yes, that means interest rates are pushing higher.

Now here’s where it gets interesting…

Normally, rising interest rates send the U.S. dollar higher.

After all, higher rates = higher yield = stronger dollar, right?

But not this time.

This time, the debt downgrade headlines are putting pressure on the dollar too — because traders are starting to worry about the creditworthiness of Uncle Sam.

Think of it like this:

When your credit card company starts asking questions about your ability to pay back your balance…
…it doesn’t matter if they raise your APR — it still makes you look shaky.

That’s kind of what’s happening to the U.S. right now.

And guess what’s perking up in the background?

You got it — gold.

Any time the dollar wobbles and debt concerns start to dominate the headlines, traders start sniffing around precious metals again.

Gold isn’t ripping… but it’s definitely got a little extra shine on it today. Especially after the 10 day freefall it was in up till now.

Bottom line This isn’t some massive market earthquake — but it’s definitely a shot across the bow.

And depending on how bonds and the dollar behave from here, it could have ripple effects that show up in commodities, rate expectations, and more.

I’ll be tracking it all — and tomorrow, I’ll break it down live on my free Market Radar show … along with a few other stories that aren’t making the headlines (yet).

UPDATE: The full episode is up now.

Stay sharp,
—Geof

P.S. See how Trump’s policies are creating “Wealth Windows” using one little-known niche of stocks… Details here.

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