Layoffs have been creeping higher for weeks, but the job market hasn’t fully reacted — yet.
We’ve seen major corporations announcing thousands of job cuts across tech, retail, and finance.
Government layoffs are also accelerating, with thousands of positions set to be cut in the coming months. But so far, the broader unemployment numbers have barely budged.
That’s the thing about layoffs — they tend to show up in the data after the damage has already been done.
Jobless claims often lag, which means we might be on the verge of a negative surprise in payroll reports.
So why does this matter for traders?
📉 Market Sentiment Shift: If jobless claims start rising, the market may have to reassess just how strong the economy really is.
📊 Impact on the Fed: The Fed has been holding off on rate cuts because of economic resilience. A jump in unemployment could change that — fast.
⚠️ Recession Watch: While no single data point confirms a slowdown, layoffs stacking up could be the first major warning sign that the market can’t ignore.
The key to watch now? Upcoming jobless claims and payroll reports. If layoffs finally start showing up in the official numbers, expect markets to take notice.
I just covered this and more in this week’s Weekly Wrap-Up. Get caught up on the key things you need to know about the market in just over 5 minutes!
Stay sharp,
—Geof Smith
P.S. Gold recent pullback could have just set the stage for its next acceleration cycle! Click here to see how I’m prepping!
