🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Alex🚨
We’ll cover which stocks to swing over the weekend as markets bounce back, the massive NFP beat driving rate cut odds, Geof’s breakdown of energy shocks as de-escalation hangs in the balance and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
Over the past few days, I’ve been answering a lot of emails.
Same story every time — positions down, accounts feeling uncomfortable, traders convinced something is broken.
And the answer I keep giving is the same: nothing is broken, this is just how the process works.
Right now, things have flipped back green again. But the important part isn’t the recovery — it’s the fact that this exact sequence keeps repeating.
Drawdown, frustration, patience, recovery.
That rhythm shows up over and over in markets like silver and gold, and once you’ve seen it enough times, you stop reacting to every swing like it’s a new problem.
That’s not randomness. That’s structure playing out over time.
Why Most Traders Lose the Cycle and How to Stop
The difference between traders who survive and traders who don’t usually isn’t strategy — it’s behavior during drawdowns.
Most people don’t fail because they’re wrong. They fail because they can’t sit still when they’re temporarily wrong.
When positions go red, the instinct is to act immediately. Cut everything, reverse everything, or overcorrect sizing. But more often than not, that reaction comes right before the market turns.
What actually matters is how you’re positioned going into the move.
If you’re oversized, every dip feels like a crisis. If you’re under time pressure, every pullback feels like failure. But when position size is reasonable and your time horizon is realistic, you stop treating volatility like danger and start treating it like noise.
That’s the shift.
Recent data from these setups has been reinforcing the same idea — when traders give trades enough time to develop and avoid overconcentration in single positions, win rates improve significantly over the full cycle.
But the key isn’t perfection. It’s survivability.
Because no strategy matters if you can’t stay in it long enough for it to work.
So when drawdowns hit, the checklist is simple: make sure your sizing makes sense, make sure your time horizon is still intact, and unless something has structurally changed, the best move is often to do nothing.
That’s where most traders struggle — and where the edge actually lives.
👉 Click here to join Profit Panel at 2:30 p.m. ET on weekdays!
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/+lm8_Nq3Su104NmFh
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinancialWars
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Geof Smith Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. My 2026 Monthly Income Gameplan!
Check out how I plan to target monthly income throughout the year, no matter what happens on the charts next, using a signal that has delivered an historical 91% win rate on live trades.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Stated results are from live, published alerts from 6/2/2021 to 4/7/2026. The win rate has been 91% on options, with an average return of 10% over a 3-day hold.
