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Most traders — and every talking head on CNBC — obsess over where the market closed yesterday.
But you can’t trade at yesterday’s close. That ship sailed the moment the bell rang.
What you can trade is today’s open.
And that changes everything, because the open is the true starting line. It’s where the race actually begins. This isn’t an abstract theory — it’s a hard mechanical rule for filtering price action. If price is above today’s open, you’re having an up day, at least at the beginning. If it’s below, you’re having a down day.
Simple as that.
Once you see the market this way, you start measuring what’s happening now instead of reacting to what already happened. You stop chasing emotional ghosts and start executing based on objective data.
The beauty of focusing on opens is that they strip away a lot of the noise. Gaps that look dramatic on a chart stop being confusing because the open resets the frame.
If price finishes above the open, the day is positive. If it finishes below, it’s negative. It doesn’t matter how wild the gap was — the open gives you a clean, honest starting point to work from.
The Real-World Example That Makes It Click
Let me give you a scenario that happens all the time, especially during earnings season.
Say a stock closes on Friday at $85. Monday morning, earnings hit and the stock gaps up to $100. The market opens at $101, and everyone’s excited. Then it starts selling off and closes the day at $90.
The financial media will tell you the stock was up $5 on the day because they’re measuring from Friday’s close. But if you bought at the open, you just lost $11.
That’s the gap between perception and reality.
When you anchor to opens, those confusing situations suddenly become simple. The gap up doesn’t distort the picture anymore. From the open, the stock sold off all day, and that tells you the real story of the session.
I can’t start a race at the finish line. I don’t buy a football ticket to show up in the last five seconds. And I’m not going to let yesterday’s close dictate how I read today’s market.
How I Use Opens to Set My Bias
I track multiple opens: Today’s, the week, the month and the year. These are clean reference points that clear out the emotional clutter that gaps and headlines create.
When you overlay this across major indexes, it provides instant structural clarity. Take a look at how the market is dividing itself right now:
The S&P 500 (SPY) opened the year around $683 and opened July near $745. Trading solidly above both, SPY’s macro structure remains clearly bullish.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) opened the year at $613 but dropped below its July open of $729. Even though the media yells that tech is up huge on the year, the internal monthly frame tells a completely different story: Short-term weakness.
If price is below the week, month and year opens, there’s nothing to buy. I’m either looking to short or I’m staying out. It’s that straightforward. By treating these opens as definitive, objective “Go/No-Go” signals, you eliminate FOMO entirely.
And here’s a simple tip: Put your year open and month open on a piece of paper and stick it on the refrigerator. Check in once in a while to see if your IRA or 401(k) is actually making money relative to where the year started. You’d be surprised how clarifying that can be.
Opens don’t spin stories. They just tell you where the race began — and whether you’re ahead or behind from that point forward.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Urgent Gold Briefing For Traders
Is it time to sell everything or load up on the no. 1 asset in the world?
After trading commodities for more than two decades, I have a better idea!
Disclaimer: The profits and performance shown are not typical; we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. The examples shown in this presentation are LIVE trade signals that have been sent since March 13, 2024. Since then, there have been 27 trade alerts, with 21 winners and 6 losers for a win rate of 77.8%. The average return per trade, including winners and losers, is 20.56%, with winners paying out 51.92% on average over a 7.5-day holding period.
