I’m not really an “outrage” kind of guy.
You couldn’t pay me to think like that. Not in a way that lends itself to outrage.
Rage, maybe. But not outrage. There’s the potential for useful work in the first while you only sacrifice your dignity with the latter.
But you know what, everybody else is doing it. So, I figure why not try it on for size.
I am absolutely, totally, completely fed up with everyone claiming black swans are so rare. In fact, it was once assumed that there were no black swans. The existence of a black swan was deemed impossible. No one would ever see one.
Now, that may be true from the perspective of Western interpretations of normal. But when you label a swan as rare, you minimize its normality by pointing out its rarity.
Consider how that makes a black swan feel!
I want to normalize black swans. They are just swans, so please – as a decent human being overflowing with mutual respect – refrain from language that may make a swan not feel like a swan.
Otherwise, I may be forced to put another type of label on such language. One that I will work, day and night to make sure gets reflected in the law.
Whew…how did I do?
Thankfully, black swans don’t really care how they look. They only think of themselves as swans just like any other swan. And all swans are proud to be swans – that’s it.
And I know this because, well…I just know the subjective experience of all beings. It’s that simple. Their qualia are my book.
Anyway, enough about living, breathing swans. I want to talk about the statistical kind and why the world is now full of them.
The Beginning of Wisdom…
First, some definitions because, as Socrates said, “the beginning of wisdom is the proper definition of terms.” And let’s start by defining white swans.
A statistical white swan is totally expected. No one is surprised to see a white swan. They don’t think “hey, that’s another swan that is white.” All anyone sees is a swan.
Now, white swans are not good or bad. They just fit within the range of expectations.
Conversely, a “Black Swan” is not just an impactful, negative event. It is an event that no one anticipated, not by a long shot.
It doesn’t even compute. It’s way out on the edge of the bell curve. So far out there, no one looking from inside the bell curve can see it.
But what happens when the curve morphs? What happens when it becomes less fat in the middle and widens its reach?
Well, the black swans suddenly become part of the team. Normality reaches out its arms by lowering the likelihood of normal stuff near the middle to raise the likelihood of everything farther from the center. That way it can better embrace former black swan regions in its probability inclusive embrace.
The green lines indicate a shift downwards and outwards from a normal distribution to one that now includes black swans that are now more likely.
Now, I don’t think I could find a better way to describe the world today than as a more inclusive probability distribution. And with what sweet irony too.
All Swans Are Equal, Some Just More Equal Than Others
What’s possible has morphed.
Take a look around and it’s clear that things deemed impossible 2 years ago are now reality.
Markets are unhinged. Global supply lines wrecked (wait till this summer…). Money is being redefined. War. Food shortages.
And to top it all off, Elon Musk bought Twitter.
And that’s just what we see now because it’s already happened. What’s next?
Almost everything is now more likely. And with everything more likely, perhaps it’s best just to call them all swans.
Reality has shifted. And my perception of what’s possible is shifting with it. Because understanding the implications of normalized black swan for markets today is vital to thriving in this new reality tomorrow.
In fact, I think seeing this new perspective is so ultimately critical that I put together a special video presentation to help me lay it all out. Because I want you to see what I see.
The market has completely transformed from “there are no such things as black swans” to “OMG, the field is filled with them.” Which really means they are all just swans.
And successfully navigating this more inclusive They are All Swans market requires new strategy and tactics.
So, please click and watch the video. You’ll be glad you did.
Because in the days ahead, you will get paid to think like this…