What 30 Major IPOs Taught Me About the SpaceX Play

🚨 Don’t Miss the SpaceX IPO event 🚨

No Daily Profit Play this morning, but you can join Lance, Graham, Nate and Alex live at 10 a.m. ET for their big SpaceX IPO Event, where they’ll reveal how to target smaller, little-known companies positioned to ride the massive space-investing stampede around Elon Musk’s historic IPO and more [tap to join them]!

 

Before we dive in, let me say this upfront — IPOs are wild and unpredictable. It’s exciting, and I’m not pretending I’m not excited about SpaceX. But the chaos that comes with a massive debut like this demands a clear-eyed, risk-aware approach.

There’s a lot of excitement building around the potential SpaceX IPO, and I get it.

Heck, if you’re not busy at 10 a.m. ET, Lance, Graham, Nate and Alex are set to take the stage to reveal their top seven stocks to play the IPO and more!

This could be one of the most anticipated offerings we’ve seen in years — possibly entering the market as the seventh largest company by market cap. A company of this scale, anticipation and aggressiveness coming public is almost unprecedented, which is exactly why I want to approach it with extra caution rather than hype-driven urgency.

I analyzed 30 major IPOs from the past 15 years — household names including some of the biggest tech leaders — and I found a pattern that’s impossible to ignore.

The average year-one maximum drawdown across these IPOs? A staggering 55%.

That’s not a typo. Even among highly successful companies, the average pullback in the first year was more than half the stock’s value at some point. We’ve seen this play out with Meta Platforms (META) at -50%, Uber Technologies (UBER) at -43%, Lyft (LYFT) at -71% and Snowflake (SNOW) at -36% in their first year after going public.

Why I’m Not Chasing the IPO Price

So here’s how I’m approaching SpaceX — I have zero interest in buying or chasing the IPO price, no matter how historic the debut might be. The data just doesn’t support that approach.

Instead, once the IPO price is set, I’m going to measure out 30% and 50% drawdown levels from that initial price. Those are my target zones based on historical precedent. For a simple example, if the IPO comes out at $100, my buy zones become $70 and $50.

For any hyped IPO like this, I limit exposure to 2-3% of my invested portfolio. SpaceX is a risk play for me, not a core holding.

When options go live — a critical part of this strategy — I’m looking to start a position using cash-secured puts at those targeted pullback levels. Selling puts lets me get paid while waiting for an attractive price. If the big pullback never comes and the stock defies all odds with zero drawdown, I still collect premium as compensation for my patience, so I’m not walking away empty-handed.

The Strategy: Cash-Secured Puts at Calculated Levels

My plan is straightforward. I’m treating SpaceX as a calculated risk worth maybe 2-3% of my portfolio at most. Once options are available, I’m looking for expirations of at least 12 months, ideally 24, to give the typical IPO drawdown pattern time to play out while collecting substantial premium. This way, I either get a great entry price or the stock soars and I still get paid for waiting.

I might also place pending buy orders at those same drawdown levels, depending on how option pricing looks. And this isn’t just about SpaceX — I plan to use the same patient, data-driven framework for any future mega-IPO that hits the market.

Look, SpaceX is a unique and compelling company. But respecting the historical behavior of major IPOs helps prevent emotional decisions. When the average year-one maximum drawdown across 30 major IPOs is 55%, that’s not something I’m willing to ignore.

IPOs are exciting, unpredictable, and full of potential. But excitement doesn’t replace strategy — it just makes strategy even more important.

Now go join the guys at 10 a.m. ET for their top 7 stocks to play the IPO and more!

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading 

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. LIVE AT 10 AM ET: The SpaceX Pre-IPO Event

If you haven’t already…

Tune in to The SpaceX Pre-IPO Event at 10 a.m. ET!

Lance, Graham, Nate and Alex are coming together to help you prepare for this once-in-a-lifetime IPO event – a day before!

There’s a massive investing stampede on the horizon, and they’ll make sure you’re sitting exactly where you need to be to get in on opportunities.

No trading guarantees, of course…

But you’ll see exactly how to take advantage the day of and weeks following…

Plus, you’ll be walking away with their top SEVEN stocks to watch as it all unfolds.

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