We’ve been hearing about Trump’s big recovery plan all week — and while he finally announced something with the U.K. on Thursday, it’s a lot more talk than action.
If we’re being honest, the real story isn’t the headline. It’s the shift behind the scenes — and how that shift might be quietly setting us up for another bubble.
You’ve probably heard me talk about Paradigm A, B and C…
Paradigm A was the Biden administration’s post-COVID, K-shaped recovery — with stocks and housing rocketing while much of Main Street got left behind. Paradigm B was supposed to be Trump’s leveling-the-playing-field plan.
But that broke in early April — and what we’re seeing now looks a lot more like a pivot to Paradigm C.
Fiscal Spending Is Still Full Throttle
If you were hoping this new plan was about slashing deficits and reigning in government spending — it’s not. There’s no trillion-dollar cut coming.
If anything, we’ve shaved maybe $100 billion off the top, and now there’s talk of a new tax cut bill stuffed with who knows what. That’s more spending.
And someone’s going to have to pay for it.
We’re still seeing a push for AI leadership, onshore manufacturing, energy independence — all great ideas, but all expensive. And at the end of the day, those kinds of plans tend to favor asset holders, not the average American.
So while we talk about narrowing the gap between Main Street and Wall Street, the reality is the net effect is probably going to be pretty minor — if it even happens at all.
What Happens If the Bubble Keeps Inflating?
Here’s the real kicker — if fiscal spending ramps up again and the Fed starts cutting into strength, we could see a melt-up that leads right into a massive blow-off top.
I’m not calling a top here. I’m just saying we’ve seen this before…
The 2018 crash, melt-up, crash.
The 2020 crash, melt-up, crash.
The 2023 hiccup, 2024 crash — and now maybe another melt-up. I’ve been around long enough to recognize the pattern.
All I can do is prepare. I’m staying long where it makes sense, but I’ve also got protection in place — because when this thing turns, it won’t end well.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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