This 7% Implied Earnings Move in NVDA Sets Up a Classic Calendar Play

by Chris Pulver | May 19, 2026

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This week is all about Nvidia earnings so we’ll discuss that, a nice Daily Profit Play winner and the Flashpoint masterclass is ready [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]!

I’ve been studying this week’s earnings calendar, and there’s one event that absolutely dominates the landscape — Nvidia releasing earnings Wednesday after the close.

Nvidia (NVDA) is the largest company in the world by market cap, and while that figure can move quickly and should always be checked in real time, its size alone puts every investor on alert ahead of this release.

What really caught my attention is how the options market is pricing the event. Options are currently pricing in roughly a 7% move, or about 16 points, which stands out because Nvidia’s average earnings move is closer to 5%. That 2% premium difference is exactly the kind of setup that makes a calendar spread attractive.

When sizing trades like this, I always compare the expected move across multiple platforms and take the highest estimate. It gives me a margin of safety and helps keep my overall win rate strong — sitting above 93% this year using this approach.

The Calendar Spread Opportunity

When premiums inflate ahead of an earnings event, it sets up a favorable environment for calendar spreads. These trades benefit when the actual move stays inside the implied range because the near-term option loses value quickly while the longer-dated option retains more of its pricing. That decay difference is where the opportunity comes from.

The goal is simple — pull in something that stays relatively quiet and muted after the announcement. For context, we captured similar calendar spread wins on Alibaba (BABA) and McDonald’s (MCD) by betting these names would remain inside their implied moves post-earnings.

The same playbook applies to NVDA if it delivers results without a major surprise.

For Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, I’m looking closely at how to structure this spread around the inflated premiums to see if there’s a clean opportunity to collect.

Other Notable Earnings Worth Watching

While NVDA is the headline this week, several other earnings reports can give us valuable reads on consumer strength, housing activity and the semiconductor supply chain.

Retail names like Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT) and TJX (TJX) help reveal the health of the consumer. Toll Brothers (TOL) offers a view into homebuilder momentum. Analog Devices (ADI) provides insight into semiconductor demand beyond NVDA.

I’m also interested in the broker and exchange stocks. If recent changes around pattern day trading rules move forward, we could see increased activity from retail traders. That uptick in engagement tends to spill directly into platform and exchange volumes.

Names like Robinhood (HOOD), Webull, Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Schwab (SCHW), CBOE (CBOE) and CME (CME) could all show strength if this shift gains traction. Watching their relative performance is a good way to gauge broader market sentiment.

This week’s calendar gives us multiple ways to position — whether it’s taking advantage of premium inflation in NVDA or using activity across retail, housing and semiconductors to piece together a broader market outlook.

The data is there…

It’s just a matter of reading how the market is pricing each event.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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