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We’re at the beginning of July and Q3, and you know what that means — Magnificent Seven (MAG7) earnings season is about to kick off.
The first half of this year has been driven by AI, chips, storage, memory and RAM, and those themes have powered some of the most dramatic moves we’ve seen in years. The momentum is real, but the expectations built on top of it are even larger.
The big question I keep asking myself is whether we’re about to see another round of outsized moves like we’ve witnessed in recent quarters. The bar is incredibly high right now, and while the AI narrative is backed by genuine demand and capital flow, I’m not sure chasing these names higher is the smartest path forward.
I’d actually feel better if the market decided not to chase this concentration play for the rest of the year — because that kind of pause would tell us something important.
Why I’m Rooting for a Rotation
I’d love a pullback. I know that sounds counterintuitive when everything’s ripping, but hear me out.
When you’re disciplined enough not to chase FOMO trades, you end up feeling frustrated for missing out, but you still avoid forcing a move you don’t believe in. A rotation — even a modest one — would signal the market is catching its breath after a couple big days and recalibrating instead of overheating.
That kind of reset isn’t weakness. It’s exactly what sustains a bull market for longer innings.
Look at what we’ve seen recently. In the past several, we’ve witnessed $100 swings in Micron Technology (MU) and saw it fall more than 10% in one session. That’s not healthy, sustainable movement — that’s volatility hinting that the market may need a more balanced posture.
The first half of this year has been dominated by AI infrastructure and semiconductor demand, but that dominance is also why a rotation could be the most constructive outcome from here.
It would show the market wants breadth, not just a handful of moonshots.
The High Bar and What Comes Next
I’m focused on what I call the picks and shovels route and the scarcity side of this trade. It’s not glamorous, and I’ll admit — it’s partly my way of justifying missing out on triple-digit gains in some of these names over the past couple months.
But there’s another concern on my radar…
When every company starts weaving AI into their earnings commentary, it starts echoing the dot-com chase. That kind of narrative inflation can push valuations to levels that don’t match fundamentals, and we’ve all seen how that movie ends. A bit of rotation would help prevent this market from slipping into that speculative mindset.
My volatility and uncertainty window isn’t really July, which is historically pretty bullish — it’s August and September. Whether it’s Jackson Hole, post-MAG7 earnings reactions or just the typical seasonal softness, that’s where I’m watching for potential turbulence.
I’m not calling for euphoria yet, but I do think we could see it before any meaningful correction. The right-tail risk is solid right now, but that high bar for earnings makes me cautious about chasing at these levels.
The market will decide whether we get that rotation or another moonshot. I’m just hoping for the former — because that’s what would give this bull market real staying power.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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I just went live with Lance Ippolito to share three trading files from my private Trading Vault…
These are files I’ve kept closely guarded for months!
