We’re stuck in this annoying three-week window right now — and honestly, nothing is really happening. The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) aren’t breaking highs or lows.
It’s just sideways chop. But here’s the thing — that’s exactly what makes this setup dangerous.
The real pain trade is still to the upside.
I know how frustrating it is. I’m sitting on a bunch of cash — about 55% of my portfolio — and I’d love to deploy it. But I’m just not getting the pullback I want.
I’m not bearish, and I’m not fading the move. I’m just frustrated. I’ve been trying to stay patient and wait for an entry I actually like, but this market just keeps drifting higher.
And that’s exactly the kind of melt-up that can catch a lot of traders off guard.
Technical Signals Point to a Pullback — But We Might Not Get 1
On SPY, we’re seeing a MACD crossover, bearish divergence and price pushing into overbought territory on relative strength. Momentum isn’t confirming the move higher, and money flow is showing signs of topping out.
That typically points to some kind of correction — or at least a short-term pullback.
But this market might not care. I’ve said it before — the pain trade could be straight up to all-time highs.
There are still gaps below that I’d love to see filled, especially on the futures charts. But if the market wants to ignore all that and keep melting higher, fine — I’ll still participate.
My portfolio has a positive drift and I’ll make money if we keep climbing. But I’d rather see a proper dip so I can actually position with some size.
No Pullbacks Means the Rally Could End Ugly
If we never get that pullback, this thing is going to get so stretched that we’ll eventually see a much sharper move lower. That’s just how markets work. It’s not going to be a soft landing forever.
And when it happens, I want to be ready.
But until then, I’ll keep managing the trades I do have and keep looking for smart ways to generate income. I’m not betting against this market — I’m just waiting for it to give me a better reason to jump in.
In the meantime, don’t underestimate how much higher we could go just to frustrate everyone still waiting on the sidelines. That’s what makes it the pain trade.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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P.S. The Pattern That Shows Up Before Explosive Moves
Fundamentals tell one story…
Price action tells the truth —but most traders read it too late. And that’s where the “PinchPoint” comes in.
It’s a simple pattern that shows pressure building before a breakout.
