JOIN ME LIVE AT 9 AM ET FOR: TECHNICAL TUESDAYS
Something happened last week that got my attention — and it wasn’t what you’d expect from strong earnings reports.
Amazon (AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) both had massive pops on earnings but here’s what matters: Most of those gains faded hard by Friday.
AMZN gapped down significantly after initially spiking and while GOOGL blew out to new all-time highs, the question isn’t whether it can run to $300-plus — it’s whether we get there immediately or pull back first.
That kind of indecision at these levels tells me something important about where we’re headed.
The Technical Picture Is Starting to Crack
Apple (AAPL) is fading at highs, Microsoft (MSFT) failed again at recent all-time high attempts and Meta (META) dropped from around $710 to $648 despite still making ridiculous amounts of money per quarter.
There was confusion around a tax-related item, but the company’s fundamentals remain solid.
Netflix (NFLX) announced a 10-for-1 split effective Nov. 17, bringing the price down to around $113, which makes it more accessible. Broadcom (AVGO) hit all-time highs with possible broadening pattern formation — those higher highs met by higher lows that often signal wedge-like volatility expansion before corrections.
But here’s what really concerns me: Only 41% of S&P 500 (SPY) stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average right now. That’s not good. It shows a lot of stocks are in a correction while the headlines focus on MAG7 strength.
How I’m Positioning for What Comes Next
I still think the market pulls back to the 50-day MA around 6,650 (SPX) — that’s roughly 200 points down from current levels. The concentration risk in mega-caps is extremely high, and the breadth divergence can’t last forever.
Amazon caught a bid Monday but if AMZN fills the gap back to $240 or even $225, I’d still look to position it long term because it remains fundamentally strong.
That gap-fill would represent a better entry with defined risk rather than chasing these highs — and let me tell you, buying all-time highs is one of the worst feelings in trading.
I’m staying defensive on new longs and looking for better entries on pullbacks. There’s hope that MAG7 continuing to grind higher will lift the broader market, but the technical setup remains fragile with narrow leadership.
Earnings season can help spur things along, but this indecision at all-time highs deserves respect.
The key is patience. Let the market come to you instead of forcing entries at extended levels. That’s how you position for the next real move.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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