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I’ve spent years studying charts, analyzing volume patterns and tracking institutional positioning. But one of my most reliable indicators doesn’t come from a Bloomberg terminal or a technical setup…
It comes from people who have absolutely no business asking me about the markets.
I call it the granny indicator, and it’s marked major tops throughout my entire trading career with eerie precision. I can literally call it that because my fiancée’s grandma once asked about silver completely out of the blue — a moment that instantly made the hairs on my neck stand up.
When someone that far outside the trading world suddenly wants in, it tells you something big about where the crowd is emotionally.
Let me tell you how this works, because what just happened might change how you think about risk management for the next few months.
The Indicator That Called the Exact Top in Gold and Silver
Here’s a real example that still gets me every time I think about it. When gold and silver were making their massive run higher, I was feeling serious FOMO pressure thinking maybe I needed to just buy some gold.
The move was relentless, it was everywhere in the financial media, and part of me wondered if I was missing the trade of the decade.
But when my fiance’s grandmother asked me about silver, that’s not a coincidence — that’s a signal. When somebody who doesn’t trade becomes interested enough to call you asking about an asset, it’s probably not a good sign.
Around these moments, you can feel the exhaustion in the market. The exhaustion’s happened, the retail crowd got caught on the wrong side of the leverage move, and sentiment is stretched so thin that even nonparticipants start getting sucked into the hype.
And the same pattern repeated itself perfectly with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was running from $30,000 up to $60,000, I had friends coming out of nowhere asking me if Bitcoin was a good buy. That wasn’t because they suddenly understood blockchain — it was because momentum and media attention had whipped the crowd into a frenzy.
My response? If you want to go from $60,000 to $40,000 to $20,000 and dollar‑cost average, I think Bitcoin’s a great buy. But don’t put all your money in at $60,000 and expect it to keep climbing.
Sure enough, it crashed.
Why This Indicator Works and What It Means for You
The psychology behind this is simple but powerful. These conversations — whether it’s someone asking about gold, silver or crypto — typically happen during family gatherings when assets have gone completely mainstream.
You’re sitting there wondering where this sudden interest came from and who’s talking about it right now, and by the time you ask yourself those questions, the move is usually overstretched.
The retail crowd entering at these extremes is, by definition, late. They’re buying because the move has already happened, not because they understand the underlying setup. Retail gets seduced by the excitement. Institutions, on the other hand, tend to see these moments as opportunities to take profit, rebalance or reduce risk.
History shows us that the retail crowd in extremes like this is typically way wrong. They’re chasing headlines, hype and emotion — not value or positioning. This is why I treat these moments as risk‑off signals. I’m not telling you to short every asset your relatives ask about. Instead, I use it as a cue to slow down, tighten stops or reduce exposure.
It’s a reminder not to let FOMO override discipline.
When the people who never trade start asking about hot assets, it’s time to pump the brakes. That’s the lesson I’ve learned over decades of trading, and it’s one of those qualitative signals that doesn’t show up on any chart but matters more than most technical indicators.
Pay attention to who’s asking you questions about the markets. Sometimes the best trading signal comes from the most unexpected sources.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. I Have A Major Announcement For You!
One of the hottest stocks in the market is setting up for a super squeeze, and I recently went live with Alex Reid…
We revealed the name for everyone along with the phenomenon driving the likely move.
