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Something unusual is happening in the markets right now, and honestly, it’s been one of the most interesting environments I’ve traded in a while.
We’re closing out the first week of November, and the government shutdown is still going strong — over 30 days now. That means traditional economic data releases like BLS non-farm payrolls are marked as “tentative” and might not even come out.
Here’s what caught my attention: Markets have continued to operate perfectly fine for the last 30-plus days during this shutdown. No major disruptions. No panic selling. In fact, we’ve seen the S&P 500 grinding higher and touching new all-time highs during this period.
And that tells you everything you need to know about what actually moves markets.
The Data We’re Still Getting — And Why It’s Enough
It’s not like we’re trading in complete darkness. ADP has taken it upon themselves to release weekly employment data in addition to their monthly reports, so we’re still getting job market insights. The University of Michigan is still releasing sentiment data on Friday. PMI data from private sources continues to come out, and Fed speakers are still making their rounds.
But here’s the bigger point — corporate earnings still happen. Fed policy signals still matter. And most importantly for technical traders like me, price action continues to provide all the information I need.
Without the noise of economic data surprises, markets are actually focusing more purely on what drives long-term performance: corporate fundamentals and Fed policy.
The private sector picks up some of the slack, and trading continues as usual.
Why This Environment Actually Creates Opportunity
For technical traders, this environment can be genuinely advantageous because there are less surprises and data bombs hitting the etape. When you remove scheduled data releases, you’re removing potential volatility catalysts. That often makes daily ranges more predictable and technical levels more reliable.
My approach hasn’t changed at all. I’m still trading based on technicals, gamma levels, and options positioning. My VIX-based strategies don’t depend on BLS releases — they depend on market maker hedging and implied volatility, both of which function perfectly regardless of whether the government is open or closed.
This shutdown could extend quite a bit longer based on what I’m seeing, but fundamentally, it doesn’t matter for day-to-day trading. As long as markets are open, the Fed is operating, and we’re getting some data from the private sector, we’re good to go.
The S&P 500 doesn’t need government statistics to find direction. Corporate America, Fed policy and global capital flows provide more than enough signal — I don’t think the market cares about the shutdown… yet.
So instead of worrying about what data we’re missing, focus on what’s actually moving price. That’s where the real opportunities are — and they’ve been there all along, government reports or not.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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