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I’ve been riding one of the most explosive precious metals moves I’ve seen in years, and I want to walk you through exactly how I’m thinking about this position…
And when I plan to take action.
Since October, I’ve been holding positions in iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Sprott Physical Silver and Gold Trust (CEF), and Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). My SLV position alone is up almost $19,000. Silver is currently trading around $80 spot price, and this thing has moved fast — really fast.
But here’s what matters more than the gains I’m sitting on right now — it’s knowing when to take profits and rotate into the next opportunity. And I’ve got a specific ratio that tells me exactly when that time comes.
The Gold-Silver Ratio That Changes Everything
There’s one chart I’m watching more closely than anything else right now — the gold-silver ratio, XAU versus XAG. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and it’s one of the most reliable timing indicators for precious metals trading.
Here’s the key level: When this ratio hits 45 or lower, it’s time to start looking at rotating from silver into gold positions. Historically speaking, when the gold-silver ratio hits 40, that’s when gold starts to outperform.
Silver can overshoot — parabolic moves often do. But this ratio gives me a framework for when silver is getting overextended relative to gold, and that’s when I want to be repositioning for the next leg of the trade.
My measured move calculation for silver projects a target of $91, and I’ve set chart alarms at both $91 and $100 as key milestones. That $90 to $100 zone is where I’m seriously considering taking profits — but again, that gold-silver ratio will ultimately tell me when it’s time to act.
The Fundamental Shift Driving This Move
There’s something happening in the physical silver market that I haven’t seen in decades. Deutsche Bank has been delivering millions of ounces of physical silver to JPMorgan and Citigroup over the last 30 to 45 days — a shift in physical delivery patterns we haven’t witnessed in 30 to 40 years.
This isn’t just about paper trading anymore. When you see that kind of physical movement between major banks, it tells you something significant is changing in the underlying market structure.
I got into these positions back in October near the 21-day moving average using a Fibonacci retracement strategy, looking for that 30-38% pullback zone. The timing worked out and now I’m managing the position with clear targets and a specific rotation plan.
If you’re looking at physical silver exposure, Miles Franklin is a reputable dealer that was recently offering some buyers opportunities at $1 below spot price. That’s worth knowing if you’re thinking about physical allocation.
The key takeaway here isn’t just about riding a hot trade. It’s about having a clear framework for when to take profits and where to rotate next. That gold-silver ratio is my signal — and when it hits those critical levels, I’ll be ready to make the move.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from a 237-trade backtest from 1/1/20 – 1/1/26. The result was a 70% win rate, 40% average return (winners and losers), with a 7-day hold time




