The Big Mac Index: What Rising Costs Tell Us About Inflation and the Market

by | Dec 31, 2024

Inflation might not always feel like a sledgehammer, but it works like a slow and sneaky thief — stealing more from our wallets year after year. 

With fears of the Fed losing control of inflation once again at the forefront, let’s visualize its impact by looking at something we’ve all encountered: rising fast food prices.

Take McDonald’s as an example. 

In 2014, the McChicken sandwich was a staple of the Dollar Menu — you could grab one for just a buck. Fast forward to 2024, and that same sandwich costs $2.99. 

That’s a 199% increase in a decade. And it doesn’t stop there… 

The McDouble went from $1.19 to $3.19, a 168% jump, while medium fries climbed from $1.59 to $3.79, marking a 138% increase.

And much like an economy, price hikes span across the menu. 

A quarter pounder with cheese meal jumped 122%, while even the humble Oreo McFlurry wasn’t spared — rising 88%. And for those who remember the days of dollar-any-size drinks, well, now you’re looking at $1.61 for a medium.

These aren’t just random numbers — they’re clear indicators of how inflation compounds over time. What’s frustrating is how subtle the impact feels on a daily basis, yet how significant it becomes when you step back and take a broader view.

Inflation isn’t limited to fast food, of course. 

It’s pervasive across sectors like Health Care and housing, but the McDonald’s example is a simple, relatable way to visualize how purchasing power erodes. If a McChicken can triple in price in just 10 years, what does that mean for big-ticket items like homes, cars or even a college education?

This is the reality we’re navigating in markets right now. 

Sticky inflation — hovering above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target — isn’t just a consumer issue. It’s driving broader economic challenges, from elevated borrowing costs to concerns about liquidity. 

Add in the Fed’s tightening cycle and China’s potential deflationary spiral, and we have a complex picture ahead.

The takeaway? 

Whether you’re trading stocks like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) or Tesla (TSLA), or simply trying to stay ahead of rising costs, inflation is an unavoidable factor. It’s why waiting for opportunities — whether that’s a pullback in stocks, housing or even a cheap McChicken (if that ever happens again) — remains critical for both traders and everyday consumers.

So, the next time you scroll past the Big Mac Index or see someone grumble about paying $4.49 for an Oreo McFlurry, remember: It’s not just about burgers and fries. 

It’s about how inflation creeps into every corner of the economy — quietly shifting the financial landscape.

Time to act accordingly. I’ll see you in the markets. 

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

P.S. Wall Street Will Begin Tax Loss Harvesting Today — See What Trades to Target at 1 PM ET

The room is opening at 1 p.m. ET today, Dec. 31, when Graham Lindman and I are sharing something urgent…

Today isn’t just the last trading day of 2024…

It’s Wall Street’s final opportunity to harvest tax losses — which means they’re about to create the deepest artificial discounts we’ve seen all year.

At exactly 3 p.m. ET, firms must start dumping billions in shares…

We’ve identified what we believe will be Wall Street’s prime targets, and we’ll be live at 1 p.m. ET to share a few juicy ideas.

Naturally, we cannot promise future returns or against losses.

Join us in the room now to see exactly how we can position ourselves as the selling begins.

Just Go Here at 1 PM ET!

What to read next