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Let me get straight to the point — the market has about 29 days to reclaim a critical technical level, and what happens in that window could determine whether we’re looking at a standard correction…
Or something much more sustained.
I’m talking about the S&P 500 (SPX) 200-day moving average (MA). We’re currently below it, and if you want to see this bull market stay intact, we need to see price reclaim that level within the next 29 days.
If we don’t? We’re probably looking at a more sustained fall.
The Bears’ Line of Defense
Here’s how I’m thinking about the structure right now. If we rally back to the 200-day MA, that becomes the first line of defense for the bears. It’s not just about getting there — it’s about what happens when we do.
The bears could easily reject any rally at that level and push us back down. And it’s going to be a tall task for the bulls to get back to 7,000 and reclaim it with any real conviction.
If we see bounces to 6,600, 6,700 or 6,800, those levels could get faded pretty hard if we’re heading down for a second leg. That second line of defense? Around 6,800, where we previously had big support that broke.
The problem is that this could be just the first of three to five legs down. That type of structure would make for a terrible market environment in 2026 — one where every bounce becomes a selling opportunity rather than a buying opportunity.
The next 29 days will tell us everything we need to know about whether this is a containable pullback or the beginning of something more serious.
What This Means for Your Positioning
I’m not trying to call a crash or predict the exact bottom. What I am saying is that without reclaiming the 200-day MA, the market character fundamentally shifts from bullish to bearish.
That’s a big deal. It means rallies should be viewed with skepticism and any strength could be faded aggressively — especially if geopolitical tensions persist.
Watch that 200-day MA closely. It’s the line in the sand that separates two very different market scenarios.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The trades expressed are from an 11-year backtest on 543 trades. The result was a 97.1% win rate, an average return of 17% (winners and losers), and an average hold time of 11 days. Every “Weekly Windfall” targets roughly $1,000 in income based on $5,000 in risk, and every example is based on that same risk unless otherwise stated (Although you can get started with just a couple of hundred bucks). From 9/30/24 – 2/27/26 on 128 live trades, the win rate is 94%, 16% average return (winners and losers) with an average hold time of 12 days.
