One trade, one ticker every week and a 94% win rate — see how it’s done LIVE at 1 PM ET
If you’re trying to compare today’s market to anything in the past, you’re going to run into trouble.
Some traders are calling it another COVID-style panic. Others are treating it like the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
The reality is, it’s a hybrid of both — and that makes it far more dangerous.
The Friday sell-off felt systemic. Earnings season is kicking off this week, and nobody really wants to report.
We haven’t even seen compression in earnings yet, and expectations for 2025 are still sky-high. Recession fears are rising fast — JPMorgan now pegs the odds at 60%, and that number could keep climbing.
The real kicker is that the Fed isn’t rushing to rescue the market. During COVID, the Federal Reserve stepped in almost immediately, flooding the system with liquidity.
This time around, the so-called Fed put is 25% to 35% away from all-time highs. Translation — stocks have a long way to fall before the Fed even thinks about stepping in.
They won’t go straight down, of course, and we’ll see rallies along the way — just check out this morning’s open for an example.
Expect Bigger Moves — and More Pain
If we’re lucky, we’ll get a bottom like we did from March to April 2020. But I wouldn’t count on a quick rebound.
The Magnificent Seven — the biggest drivers of the last rally — have been accelerating the sell-off. This isn’t just a correction in Big Tech. It’s a rotation that could turn systemic fast.
When you combine stretched valuations with geopolitical tensions, tariff threats and a shaky earnings outlook, you get the perfect storm. It wouldn’t surprise me to see volatility surge to record levels.
The VIX could push to new highs. We could see the biggest peak-to-trough decline — and the fastest recovery — in history.
Right now, the market has stabilized but that doesn’t mean the worst is over. Systemic risks are real, and the U.S. is losing some of the economic leverage that used to cushion these kinds of shocks.
Everything is being driven by headlines right now.
If earnings start to collapse, we’re looking at the S&P 500 (SPY) dropping from a 25 price-to-earnings ratio down to 19, 18 or even 16. That’s a big haircut from current levels.
The bottom line — this isn’t just another COVID-style crash. It’s a blend of 2008’s financial panic and 2020’s pandemic-driven freefall.
The only way to survive it is to trade small, manage risk and stay patient. Big opportunities are coming, but the first priority right now is making sure you’re around to capture them.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. I’ll Take April’s First Weekly Windfall Trade Today — Care to Join Me?
But before you tag along for the trade, I want to show you how we’ve maintained a 94% win rate, even in the worst possible market…
And it’s all going down at 1 p.m. ET today!
