Target Stock Is Down 61% — Here’s a Low-Risk Way to Profit

by | Mar 19, 2025

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Retail has taken it on the chin lately, and Target (TGT) is no exception. Shares have plunged more than 60% from their 2021 highs, and investors are understandably skittish.

But when others panic, that’s often exactly the time to consider stepping in.

The question, though, is how to do it without catching the proverbial falling knife. After all, shares could drop further, especially with consumer spending looking shaky.

That’s why I’ve been eyeing a low-risk options play in Target — one that’s strategic rather than speculative. It’s a trade designed to profit even if the stock drifts lower and allows me to potentially take ownership at a dramatically discounted price.

Target is trading around $104 right now. Based on fundamentals, fair value is closer to $170. Its current price-to-earnings ratio just under 12 is dirt cheap compared to rivals like Costco (COST), Walmart (WMT) and BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), which trade at multiples ranging from 27 to 53.

If interest rates finally start coming down this year, Target’s high debt load gets easier to handle. And let’s face it — Target isn’t going anywhere. It’s fundamentally solid, even if consumer confidence temporarily dips.

Here’s How I’m Playing It

Instead of buying shares outright at today’s price, I placed a ratio spread using put options. Specifically, I bought one $80 put and sold two $75 puts expiring in December 2025. I collected a premium of $1.74 per contract, setting up a high-probability trade with a built-in profit zone between $80 and $75.

If Target stays above $75 by expiration, I pocket the premium for an easy income trade. If the stock drops below $75, I take ownership at a breakeven of $68.26 per share. That’s roughly 35% below today’s price and about 75% off the stock’s highs — essentially paying 2016 prices for a top-tier retailer.

The Bottom Line on TGT

Could Target fall below my $68 breakeven? Sure, anything’s possible. But at that level, I’d be more than comfortable owning the stock long term. This trade isn’t a reckless gamble on a quick bounce — it’s calculated, patient and profitable whether Target rallies, stays flat or dips moderately lower.

In a market filled with uncertainty, this is exactly how I like to capitalize on fear — turning others’ panic into steady profit at great prices.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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