We’re heading into July with the indexes just shy of new highs — and if seasonality holds up, there may still be plenty of room for upside.
The Nasdaq already cleared its February high, and the S&P 500 (SPY) came within a few points of its all-time high at 6,147. With price continuing to print higher highs and higher lows, there’s little in the way right now unless something drastic changes.
The market doesn’t seem ready to quit. The SPY hasn’t shown any real signs of fading — no gap fills, no sharp reversals, no real fear. The Nasdaq is now up nearly 7% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up about 4.5%. And with both indexes back at or above February’s peak, the door’s open for more.
This is where seasonality kicks in.
July is typically one of the more bullish months of the year. And this setup — the steady melt-up, the absence of pullbacks, and a backdrop of low volatility — looks a lot like what we saw in 2020. That year, once we reclaimed the highs after the COVID crash, the market pushed higher, paused, then kept grinding up into the year’s end.
Not every seasonal pattern plays out perfectly, but in this case, it’s hard to argue with the trend. Bulls are in control unless SPY falls back under 5,950 or the price action starts sweeping support levels. As long as that doesn’t happen, the bias remains higher — and July could just carry the trend further.
What History Suggests About Melt-Ups
There’s a strong parallel to 2020. Back then, the market bounced hard from the lows, reclaimed its previous highs, then extended another 6% before a correction hit. Even that pullback — roughly 10% — was short-lived. What followed was a powerful move into the next year.
So far, 2025 is tracing a similar path. This year’s earlier pullback looks like a healthy reset. And with the SPY and NASDAQ pushing new highs, history says the melt-up can keep going — especially with seasonal tailwinds behind it.
What Would Change the Story
If the S&P 500 breaks back below key support — especially 5,950 — the bull case gets weaker fast. That’s the threshold where I’d question the trend. But so far, nothing suggests that’s in the cards.
Buyers keep stepping in, the dips aren’t materializing, and price is refusing to quit.
That’s not to say we won’t get volatility. We have a holiday-shortened week with Friday being the Fourth of July. But barring a sharp reversal, it’s hard to ignore the strength into July — a month that tends to favor continued gains.
Stay nimble, but stay open to upside. Seasonality is pointing the way.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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