Nvidia Earnings + Jackson Hole = the Perfect Storm I’m Preparing For

by Chris Pulver | Aug 7, 2026

There’s a week coming up that has my full attention, and if you’re actively trading options, it should have yours too.

I’m talking about Wednesday, Aug. 26, through Friday, Aug. 28. Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings that Wednesday followed immediately by the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 27-28.

I don’t mind trading through volatile periods. I’ve done it before and I’ll do it again. But this convergence deserves a serious conversation about risk management.

Jackson Hole is already a tricky event to trade. When you layer in earnings from one of the market’s most influential companies, things can get wild in a hurry.

What Happened Last Year Should Be a Warning

Last year, the market ripped almost 200% of its expected daily trading range in a single session.

We had roughly a 90-point to 110-point expected move on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), but it ultimately climbed around 170 to 180 points. That’s not a minor overshoot — it’s a complete invalidation of what the probability models suggested was likely.

And it happened in one morning. Powell said something the market loved and it was blastoff. His remarks shifted expectations quickly enough to send the market surging, catching option sellers and traders with tight risk parameters completely off guard.

That’s the danger of central bank communication. A subtle change in tone can alter expectations for rates, inflation or economic growth almost instantly. When positioning is crowded and liquidity is thin, the resulting move can become far larger than the initial catalyst might suggest.

How I’m Thinking About This Week

Jackson Hole tends to arrive during late-August conditions when liquidity is already thin. Add NVDA earnings and an extraordinary backdrop of market dispersion — potentially the widest in more than 100 years — and you’ve got a recipe for unusually erratic price action.

That dispersion matters because the major indexes can hide dramatic differences beneath the surface. A handful of heavyweight stocks may drive the headline move while other sectors behave entirely differently. That can make hedges less effective, correlations less reliable and index-level risk harder to judge.

I survived last year’s Jackson Hole event and won on multiple days afterward. But the lesson isn’t to treat this period casually or avoid trading altogether — it’s to be hyper-aware of position sizing and total exposure.

When actual moves can reach nearly 200% of the expected range within hours, your usual assumptions may not hold. I’m being selective about what I’m willing to carry and making sure I’m not overexposed to short-premium positions that could get steamrolled by a policy comment or earnings surprise.

Respect the uncertainty. Trade if you want, but keep risk tight and position sizes reasonable. When Jackson Hole and NVDA earnings collide against an already extreme market backdrop, prices can do things that make no sense — until they do.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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