My Year-End Market Predictions and Why NVDA, GOOGL Aren’t Buys Right Now 

by | Dec 11, 2024

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As we enter the final stretch of 2024, the markets are sitting at an impressive 57 all-time highs for the year. The S&P 500 is up a staggering 28%, a testament to the resilience of this bull market. 

But with only 12-13 full trading days left — factoring in the holidays and limited hours — the question on everyone’s mind is: Will the markets climb higher, or have we peaked?

Historically, years with significant all-time highs, like 2021 and 2017, have shown similar strength. This year has been particularly notable, as 57 highs put us in the company of some of the best runs of the last decade. 

However, the recent pullback suggests we might be running out of steam.

Several factors could influence the market’s direction. This week’s CPI data came out good enough to support the rally today. A print that came in higher than expected could have triggered volatility — potentially stalling the year-end momentum. 

But the number came in as expected, which hopefully will help the market regain its footing, and push it toward that elusive 60-high milestone.

The Federal Reserve also looms large. 

With a rate decision coming next week, its stance could act as either a catalyst for a rally, or a reality check. A dovish tone might be the push needed to close the year strong, while any indication of sustained hawkishness could send stocks into retreat.

Looking at past cycles, there’s reason for optimism. 

From the 1950s to the ’70s, the 1980s to ’99, and again from 2013 to now, we’ve seen extended periods of market strength lasting 15 years or more. By that measure, this current cycle could still have legs. 

But that doesn’t mean a pullback isn’t in the cards. A 5%-10% correction is entirely reasonable, especially given the market’s massive gains this year.

This isn’t the time to chase all-time highs blindly. 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have shown incredible strength — but they’ve also stretched valuations. Stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) may look tempting, but with so many trading days already behind us, patience might be the best play for now.

In short, while the market could surprise us with a few more highs, the safer bet might be preparing for a modest pullback. Either way, 2024 has been a banner year for stocks — and whether we close at 57 highs or 60, it’s a year that will be hard to forget.

I’ll see you in the markets. 

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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