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I’ve been running numbers on something that’s been nagging at me for months — and what I found completely changed my approach to position sizing.
Over the past three years, I’ve been tracking every single zero-day options (0DTE) trade I’ve made using my 20-delta by 10-delta spread strategy. I’m talking about 819 actual trades — real money, real results, real data.
And here’s what shocked me: The maximum consecutive losses I’ve seen is just two trades. That’s it. Two in a row, then back to profitability.
This got me thinking about scaling strategies — specifically, whether the math actually supports increasing position size after losses.
The 3-Way Scaling Showdown
I decided to run the numbers on three different approaches using my actual trade data.
First, the conservative approach: maximum two contracts, so if we lose one, we take a two-contract trade. Simple, controlled risk.
Second, the step-increase method: 1-2-3-4 contract progression. More aggressive than conservative, but still reasonable.
Third, the martingale: 1-2-4-8 doubling down. This strategy involves doubling your position size after each loss, betting that a win will recover all previous losses and yield a profit. This is where things get dangerous fast.
The results were eye-opening. While isolated losses happen regularly in this game, consecutive losses are actually rare. The data supports scaling strategies — but only if you’re smart about it.
Why I’m Warning Against Martingale Madness
Here’s the thing that keeps me up at night…
I’ve watched traders use martingale strategies and reach market-maker volume levels. We’re talking about Captain Condor-type traders who are moving serious size.
But here’s the brutal truth — when volatility events hit, those exponential risk increases become account destroyers. You might win 95% of the time, but that 5% will wipe you out completely.
Even my conservative two-contract max scaling provides substantial recovery benefits without the heart-stopping risk. When your maximum consecutive loss streak is only two trades, you don’t need to go crazy with position sizing.
The math is clear: Isolated losses are part of the game, consecutive losses are the exception. Plan accordingly, scale conservatively, and sleep better at night.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
P.S. 1 Trade. 1 Ticker. 1 Time a Week
That’s how my research has shown to leverage a little-known niche in the options market to target income every Monday around noon…
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