April’s Market Trap: Why This Bounce Might Be the Last Before a Bigger Flush

by Chris Pulver | Mar 24, 2025

The indexes may be bouncing — but I’m not buying the optimism.

Some of the usual names are flashing green, like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) are all showing signs of life. But under the surface, this market still feels fragile.

The S&P 500 is hovering around a key level at 5,700, and we’ve got a high-volume options expiration behind us. The market’s been holding support — barely — and that’s exactly what makes this bounce so tricky.

From a technical standpoint, it’s a textbook setup for a fakeout.

Why April Might Be the Problem

Next Monday wraps up the quarter, and we’re heading into a stretch where macro risk could dominate. April brings tariff talk back into the headlines — and if that narrative heats up, it could easily spark another wave of deleveraging.

We’ve already had a 10% correction this year, and if this bounce rolls over, there’s nothing stopping the indexes from retesting or even breaking those lows.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains under pressure. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is still weighed down by some of the former market leaders. Even the mega caps in the Information Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors are struggling to stay above their 200-day moving averages.

And here’s the thing…

A 10% pullback happens, on average, every 12 to 18 months. But a 20% correction? That’s when the real fear sets in. Those are the moves that create long-term opportunity — if you’re ready for them.

Have Cash — and a Plan

This isn’t about panic. It’s about preparation.

If the bounce holds and we grind higher, great. But I’m not betting on that. Not with earnings around the corner, a potential tariff overhang, and a lot of macro uncertainty still in the system. That includes fiscal tightening, rising volatility and a very real possibility that the so-called “Fed put” is deeper than the market wants to admit.

The way I see it, this bounce is a trap. It’s a short-term sugar high ahead of a more painful move lower. I’m keeping my powder dry, building income through option trades and eyeing key levels where I’d be willing to step in and start deploying capital again.

Until then, I’m staying patient. The next flush — if and when it comes — could offer the kind of setup we only see every few years. And I plan to be ready for it.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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