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The VIX is down but combined with the S&P 500, things don’t make sense, 9 of 10 bullish candles on SPX and looking for a pause or pullback, and PPI coming in hot? [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]!
Something interesting is happening in the market right now, and the timing could not be better for earnings season this week. The market’s found an interesting equilibrium…
We’re sitting in the middle of a range that creates favorable conditions no matter which direction we head. At the same time, I’m staying out of the way. I do not know what the market wants to do, and it could have a heck of a time going back and forth here.
That uncertainty is exactly why patience and disciplined positioning matter.
Let me walk you through why this setup is so compelling and how I’m thinking about the multiple scenarios that could play out from here.
Why Multiple Market Paths Still Work
Here’s what makes this moment so tactical. We have three potential outcomes, and each one works in our favor if we’re positioned correctly.
First scenario: If the market goes higher, we’re in great shape.
Second scenario: The market chops around. If price is going to chop around here confused, time is our friend. With the VIX at 20 and time decay on our side, theta can carry the load.
Third scenario: The S&P 500 pulls back toward 6,600. If the VIX pushes into the 23 to 25 range, that volatility expansion should allow us to still collect premium and get trades filled. Even a pullback creates opportunity.
Behind all of this, macro dashboards have been flashing renewed risk appetite. Many track dozens of factors tied to risk on and risk off behavior, and they’re leaning supportive again — a useful tailwind while we work this range.
The Broader Forces Supporting Resiliency
There’s a broader backdrop that matters right now. Earnings are expected to grow, and with that comes a kind of baked-in resiliency. Even with geopolitical tension and policy moves creating headlines — whether decisions in the Middle East or strategic timing around political cycles — the market continues to absorb shocks better than many expect.
All of this reinforces why I’m not forcing anything here. Sometimes the best move is letting the market show its hand while we stay positioned with strategies that have multiple ways to win.
This equilibrium will not last forever, but right now it is giving disciplined options traders the kind of environment where structure matters more than prediction — and where rallies, chop or pullbacks can all play in our favor.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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