The Rational Trader: Abbott Laboratories — Classic Oversold Setup
JD lines up two mean reversion trades — Abbott and Progressive — both stretched two sigma below their means ahead of earnings. Defined risk, steady math, no guesswork.
Read More
Category: JD Dlugosch
Select a guru below to view more of their posts!
All Posts - Casey Stubbs - Chris Pulver - David Trainer - Graham Lindman - Geof Smith - Nate Tucci - Jeffry Turnmire - ProsperityPub
The Rational Trader: Johnson & Johnson — The Battle of the Bulge
JD opens earnings season with a mean reversion setup in J&J — a stock that’s swung from two sigma above to two below its mean. The math says it’s time to sell premium.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Riding the Mean Back Down with Applied Digital
JD follows up his Pepsi win with a new cash machine trade — this time on the short side. Applied Digital’s running hot into earnings, and mean reversion logic says gravity wins.
Read More
The Rational Trader: A Quiet, Rational Earnings Setup on Pepsi
JD breaks down a defined-risk mean reversion trade ahead of Pepsi’s earnings — a $135/$131 put spread designed to profit from stability, not prediction.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Back to Earth for Constellation Brands
JD lays out a mean reversion trade ahead of Constellation Brands earnings — a put debit spread targeting a 3% pullback after the stock’s expected short-lived surge above its mean.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Nike Worked Like a Charm
JD recaps the Nike trade: two sigma below its mean, puts sold, and a clean win — even as the market sagged. Q3 earnings are up next, and the playbook is ready.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Nike Earnings Cash Machine Setup
JD explains why Nike’s earnings set up a put credit spread: sell the $65 put, buy the $62 put, and collect 50 cents — unless Nike craters more than 6%.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Arbitrage in Action: A 62% SPY Win
JD explains how a flat factor score vs. futures up 50 bps led to a SPY 665/664 put debit spread — closed for a 62% gain as the market drifted back to flat.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Costco Earnings: A 2% Move Could Do It
JD breaks down a Costco earnings setup: a call debit spread that costs about $8, pays up to $20, and needs less than a 2% move higher to hit full profit.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Accenture’s Earnings — A Simple Cash Machine Setup
JD recaps Micron’s win and lays out a put credit spread for Accenture earnings — selling the $212.50 put, hedging at $202.50, and pocketing about $1.05 net.
Read More
The Rational Trader: Ringing the Register With Micron
JD explains why Micron’s hype-driven rally set up a simple mean reversion play: selling the $200 call into earnings, hedged with higher strikes for defined risk.
Read More
The Rational Trader: When the News Blows Up the Trade
JD explains how a zero factor score led to a missed entry and a bad fade — until Nvidia’s $100B shock forced a reset. Tomorrow, he’s eyeing Micron for a setup.
Read More