The Rational Trader: Back to Earth for Constellation Brands
JD lays out a mean reversion trade ahead of Constellation Brands earnings — a put debit spread targeting a 3% pullback after the stock’s expected short-lived surge above its mean.
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Author: JD Dlugosch
The Rational Trader: Nike Worked Like a Charm
JD recaps the Nike trade: two sigma below its mean, puts sold, and a clean win — even as the market sagged. Q3 earnings are up next, and the playbook is ready.
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The Rational Trader: Nike Earnings Cash Machine Setup
JD explains why Nike’s earnings set up a put credit spread: sell the $65 put, buy the $62 put, and collect 50 cents — unless Nike craters more than 6%.
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The Rational Trader: Arbitrage in Action: A 62% SPY Win
JD explains how a flat factor score vs. futures up 50 bps led to a SPY 665/664 put debit spread — closed for a 62% gain as the market drifted back to flat.
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The Rational Trader: Costco Earnings: A 2% Move Could Do It
JD breaks down a Costco earnings setup: a call debit spread that costs about $8, pays up to $20, and needs less than a 2% move higher to hit full profit.
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